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End-user Informed Demographic Projections for Hamilton up to 2041

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Abstract

This report provides a set of projections of the population of Hamilton City and the larger Hamilton Zone. The projections have been calculated by means of the cohort component model. The projections can be considered alongside official Statistics New Zealand projections, but differ from the latter in terms of assumptions made about net migration. These assumptions constitute a number of scenarios that were informed by the Hamilton City Council and local consultations. These scenarios are linked to the potential impact of a number of economic development activities. The report also contains projections of the number of households, the labour force and two ethnic groups: Maori and New Zealand Europeans. In addition, a dwellings-based methodology is used to produce small area (Census Area Unit) projections. Across the scenarios, Hamilton City’s projected population growth over the next two decades ranges from 13.8 percent to 36.0 percent. This is between 1.5 to 12.2 percentage points higher than the corresponding projected national growth.

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  • M. Cameron & W. Cochrane & J. Poot, 2008. "End-user Informed Demographic Projections for Hamilton up to 2041," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-66, University of Waikato, Te Ngira Institute for Population Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:wai:pscdps:dp-66
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    File URL: https://repec.its.waikato.ac.nz/wai/pscdps/dp-66.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
    2. Sandra Baxendine & Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2005. "Demographic Change and Transport Needs in the Waikato Region," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-51, University of Waikato, Te Ngira Institute for Population Research.
    3. John Bryant & Veronica Jacobsen & Matthew Bell & Daniel Garrett, 2004. "Labour Force Participation and GDP in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 04/07, New Zealand Treasury.
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    1. D.T. Rutledge & M. Cameron & S. Elliott & T. Fenton & B. Huser & G. McBride & G. McDonald & M. O’Connor & D. Phyn & J. Poot & R. Price & F. Scrimgeour & B. Small & A. Tait & H. Van Delden & M.E. Wedde, 2008. "Choosing Regional Futures: Challenges and choices in building integrated models to support long-term regional planning in New Zealand," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 85-108, November.
    2. Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2010. "A Stochastic Sub-national Population Projection Methodology with an Application to the Waikato Region of New Zealand," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-70, University of Waikato, Te Ngira Institute for Population Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort component model; population; household; labour force; ethnicity; scenario; small area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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