IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vuw/vuwcsr/18939.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the WACC in a Regulatory Setting: An Assessment of Dr Martin Lally's paper 'The Weighted Average Cost of Capital for Electricity Lines Businesses' of 8 September 2005

Author

Listed:
  • Boyle, Glenn
  • Evans, Lewis
  • Guthrie, Graeme

Abstract

In September 2005 the New Zealand Commerce Commission (NZCC) released a document (TheWeighted Average Cost of Capital for Electricity Lines Businesses by Dr Martin Lally referred to as LINES hereafter) that estimates a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for New Zealand electricity lines businesses and proposes a means for detecting future excess earnings. At about the same time the NZCC also began seeking submissions on another document (Draft Guide- lines: The Commerce Commission's Approach to Estimating the Cost of Capital 2005) that addresses the topic of an appropriate framework for the WACC in the New Zealand regulatory environment. Although no specific author is attributed to the latter its material content is drawn from LINES. In this paper we undertake a detailed analysis of the approach followed in LINES. We do so from the perspective of a referee who has been asked to provide a review of that report in order to assess its suitability for publication in an edited book or journal that adheres to conventional academic standards. Although LINES has not of course been submitted for publication orreview of this kind its contents and recommendations should nevertheless meet minimum standards of accuracy thoroughness and consistency. It is these criteria we use to assess LINES. Our report is motivated by a simple but important concern: although the cost of capital is a critical element of the revenue and price settings that materially determine the social net-benefit of income-control regulation there are presently no institutional arrangements in New Zealand that allow for reports such as LINES to be thoroughly reviewed and debated. On the basis of our review we conclude that such institutional arrangements are sorely needed. Our assessment of LINES comprises two parts. In Section I we provide an overview of what we consider to be the critical areas of concern in LINES. Section II then discusses specific errors in detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyle, Glenn & Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Estimating the WACC in a Regulatory Setting: An Assessment of Dr Martin Lally's paper 'The Weighted Average Cost of Capital for Electricity Lines Businesses' of 8 September 2005," Working Paper Series 18939, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcsr:18939
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/18939
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
    2. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    3. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 239-264, May.
    4. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    5. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    6. Tom Keck & Eric Levengood & AL Longfield, 1998. "Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis In An International Setting: A Survey Of Issues In Modeling The Cost Of Capital," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 11(3), pages 82-99, September.
    7. Bruce C. Greenwald, 1984. "Rate Base Selection and the Structure of Regulation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(1), pages 85-95, Spring.
    8. Ian M. Dobbs, 2004. "Intertemporal price cap regulation under uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 421-440, April.
    9. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    10. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2005. "The long-run equity risk premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 185-194, December.
    11. William J. Bernstein & Robert D. Arnott, 2003. "Earnings Growth: The Two Percent Dilution," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(5), pages 47-55, September.
    12. Marston, Felicia & Harris, Robert S, 1993. "Risk and Return: A Revisit Using Expected Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 117-137, February.
    13. Ivo Welch, 2001. "The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1325, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    15. Parmesano, Hethie & Makholm, Jeff D., 2004. "The Thaw: The End of the Ice Age For American Utility Rate Cases--Are You Ready?," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 69-74, July.
    16. Greenwald, Bruce C, 1980. "Admissible Rate Bases, Fair Rates of Return and the Structure of Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 359-368, May.
    17. Paul L. Joskow, 1973. "Pricing Decisions of Regulated Firms: A Behavioral Approach," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 118-140, Spring.
    18. Lewellen, Wilbur G & Mauer, David C, 1993. "Public Utility Valuation and Risk under Incentive Regulation," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 263-287, September.
    19. John J. Binder, 1985. "Measuring the Effects of Regulation with Stock Price Data," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 167-183, Summer.
    20. Tomas Jandik & Anil K. Makhija, 2005. "Can Diversification Create Value? Evidence from the Electric Utility Industry," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 34(1), Spring.
    21. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    22. Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 925-972, December.
    23. Joskow, Paul L, 1974. "Inflation and Environmental Concern: Structural Change in the Process of Public Utility Price Regulation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 291-327, October.
    24. Jean Tirole, 2006. "The Theory of Corporate Finance," Post-Print hal-00173191, HAL.
    25. Michael J. Brennan & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1982. "Consistent Regulatory Policy under Uncertainty," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 506-521, Autumn.
    26. Longstaff, Francis A, 2005. "Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt2458g38x, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boyle, Glenn & Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Estimating the WACC in a Regulatory Setting: An Assessment of Dr Martin Lally's paper 'The Weighted Average Cost of Capital for Electricity Lines Businesses' of 8 September 2005," Working Paper Series 3844, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    2. repec:vuw:vuwscr:18939 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Working Paper Series 18946, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    4. Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 925-972, December.
    5. repec:vuw:vuwscr:18946 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 925-972, December.
    7. Rui Alpalhao & Paulo Alves, 2005. "The Portuguese equity risk premium: what we know and what we don't know," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 489-498.
    8. Glenn Boyle, 2005. "Risk, expected return, and the cost of equity capital," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 181-194.
    9. Ian Dobbs, 2011. "Modeling welfare loss asymmetries arising from uncertainty in the regulatory cost of finance," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-28, February.
    10. Hahn, Robert & Evans, Lewis, 2010. "Regulating Dynamic Markets: Progress in Theory and Practice," Working Paper Series 4052, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    11. Efstathios Avdis & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," NBER Working Papers 19684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ľuboš Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
    13. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. repec:vuw:vuwscr:18947 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Regulated prices and real options," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 650-663.
    17. Ingo Vogelsang, 2012. "Incentive Regulation, Investments and Technological Change," Chapters, in: Gerald R. Faulhaber & Gary Madden & Jeffrey Petchey (ed.), Regulation and the Performance of Communication and Information Networks, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Armstrong, Mark & Sappington, David E.M., 2007. "Recent Developments in the Theory of Regulation," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: Mark Armstrong & Robert Porter (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1557-1700, Elsevier.
    19. Glenn Boyle, 2005. "Risk, expected return, and the cost of equity capital," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 181-194.
    20. Boyle, Glenn, 2005. "Risk, Expected Return and the Cost of Equity Capital," Working Paper Series 18947, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    21. Rochon, Mathieu & Desrosiers, Stéphanie & L’Her, Jean-François, 2004. "Révision à la baisse de la prime sur les actions au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(1), pages 137-170, Mars.
    22. Jansen, Kristy, 2021. "Essays on institutional investors, portfolio choice, and asset prices," Other publications TiSEM fd998408-d282-4e0f-b542-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    23. Gioia Pescetto, 2007. "Regulation and systematic risk: the case of the water industry in England and Wales," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 61-73.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lines; WACC; regulation;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcsr:18939. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library Technology Services (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fcvuwnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.