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A two-stage model for diffusion of innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Cinzia Colapinto

    (Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia)

  • Elena Sartori

    (Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia)

  • Marco Tolotti

    (Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide an analytical framework to study the whole process of diffusion of innovations, new products or ideas: we take into account knowledge transfer in a complex society, decisional process for adoption and key features in the spread of new technologies. For this purpose, we propose a probabilistic model based on an interacting population connected through new communication channels (such as social media) where potential adopters are linked with each other at different connection degrees. Our diffusion curve is the result of an emotion driven decision process following the awareness phase. Finally, we are able to recover stylized facts highlighted by the extant literature in the field.

Suggested Citation

  • Cinzia Colapinto & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2012. "A two-stage model for diffusion of innovations," Working Papers 16, Venice School of Management - Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    • Handle: RePEc:vnm:wpdman:29
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    3. Lawrence Blume & Steven Durlauf, 2003. "Equilibrium Concepts for Social Interaction Models," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 193-209.
    4. Elmar Kiesling & Markus Günther & Christian Stummer & Lea Wakolbinger, 2012. "Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 183-230, June.
    5. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    6. Barucci, Emilio & Tolotti, Marco, 2012. "Social interaction and conformism in a random utility model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1855-1866.
    7. Dai Pra, Paolo & Tolotti, Marco, 2009. "Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2913-2944, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Awareness and adoption; diffusion of innovations; emotion driven decision making; hubs; random utility model; social media marketing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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