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The Portfolio Allocation Effects of Investor Sentiment about the Ability of Managers to Beat the Market

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Abstract

I present a model that can transform discounts on closed-end mutual funds into a measure of investor sentiment about the ability of fund managers to beat the market. This measure of sentiment varies positively with capital flows into actively managed open-end mutual funds, but negatively with capital flows into passively managed index funds. Investors appear to re-allocate their portfolios between actively and passively managed investment vehicles based on expectations about by how much managers will beat or trail the market.

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  • Flynn, Sean M., 2005. "The Portfolio Allocation Effects of Investor Sentiment about the Ability of Managers to Beat the Market," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 77, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vas:papers:77
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    File URL: http://irving.vassar.edu/VCEWP/VCEWP77.pdf
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    1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    3. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Closed-End Mutual Funds," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 153-164, Fall.
    4. Malkiel, Burton G, 1977. "The Valuation of Closed-End Investment-Company Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 847-859, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Flynn, Sean Masaki, 2003. "Limited Arbitrage, Segmentation, and Investor Heterogeneity: Why the Law of One Price So Often Fails," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 56, Vassar College Department of Economics.

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