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Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach

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  • Aimola, Akingbade U
  • Odhiambo, Nicholas M

Abstract

Inflationary tendencies of public debt have been the cause of an unsettling debate among policymakers in Nigeria. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, this study attempts to investigate the impact of total public debt on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1983?2018. The cointegrating regression results reveal evidence of a stable long-run relationship among inflation, total public debt, money supply, interest rate, economic growth, trade openness, and private investment in the presence of structural breaks. Empirical results show that the impact of public debt on inflation is statistically insignificant, irrespective of whether the regression was in the short or the long run. Hence, the study concludes that inflation in Nigeria could be driven by other factors other than public debt.

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  • Aimola, Akingbade U & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Working Papers 27738, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uza:wpaper:27738
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    1. Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy & Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud, 2023. "Does external debt drive inflation in Sudan: evidence from symmetric and asymmetric ARDL approaches," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(4), pages 293-307.
    2. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57, June.

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    Keywords

    public debt; inflation; ARDL; Nigeria.;
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