IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uwa/wpaper/03-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment and Share Prices: Fundamental versus Speculative Components

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher B. Branston
  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

This paper uses quarterly US data from 1953(6) to 2000(6) to investigate the effects of share-price changes on investment. We focus on the distinction between speculative and fundamental components of share-price movements and we contribute to the literature by evaluating four alternative methods of decomposing share-price movements into these two components. The four methods are: (1)a decomposition based on regressing share-returns on a set of variables designed to capture fundamentals; (2)the use of the price-earnings ratio; (3)the use of the dividend yield and (4)a structural VAR model based on the dividend-discount equation. We find that, no matter what the method of decomposition is, shocks to both fundamental and speculative components have positive effects on investment and that, in contrast to the earlier literature, the effect of the speculative shock is at least as large as that of a shock to fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher B. Branston & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Investment and Share Prices: Fundamental versus Speculative Components," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:03-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ecompapers.biz.uwa.edu.au/paper/PDF%20of%20Discussion%20Papers/2003/03_18_Groewold3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Bubbles, fundamentals, and investment: A multiple equation testing strategy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 47-76, August.
    4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    5. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    6. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    7. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Oxley, Les & McAleer, Michael, 1993. "Econometric Issues in Macroeconomic Models with Generated Regressors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.
    2. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Financial Deregulation and the Relationship Between the Economy and the Share Market in Australia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Fundamental Share Prices and Aggregate Real Output," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    5. Allen, D.E & Yang, W, 2004. "Do UK stock prices deviate from fundamentals?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 373-383.
    6. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    7. Patricia Fraser & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2004. "US share prices and real demand and supply shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 31, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Jens Weidmann, 1997. "New Hope for the Fisher Effect? A Re-Examination Using Threshold Cointegration," Macroeconomics 9705005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hess, Martin K., 2004. "Dynamic and asymmetric impacts of macroeconomic fundamentals on an integrated stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 455-471, December.
    10. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2011. "Fundamentals, Misvaluation, and Business Investment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1423-1442, October.
    11. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2003. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 345-367.
    12. Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 1996. "Die Rolle des Vermögens in der Geldnachfrage," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2003. "How big is the speculative component in Australian share prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 177-195.
    14. Stephen G.Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Working Papers 61, Bank of Greece.
    15. Najeeb, Faiq & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Macroeconomic variables and stock returns: evidence from Singapore," MPRA Paper 98778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Patricia Fraser & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "US Share Prices and Real Supply and Demand Shocks," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    17. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    18. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas, 2007. "Dual foreign currency markets and the role of expectations: Evidence from the Pacific Basin countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 238-259, June.
    19. Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 1996. "The role of wealth in money demand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,05e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2006. "US share prices and real supply and demand shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 149-167, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; stock prices; fundamentals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:03-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sam Tang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuwaau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.