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How Big is the Speculative Component in Australian Share Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Angela Black

    (Department of Accountancy and Finance, The University of Aberdeen)

  • Patricia Fraser

    (Department of Accountancy and Finance, The University of Aberdeen)

  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

Using 20 years of Australian quarterly data, this paper decomposes Australian share prices into their fundamental and speculative components. To do this we derive the fundamental share-price-output ratio and, hence, the fundamental share price from a resticted vector-autoregressive model relating the aggregate real share-price index to real output. Our estimates use different assumptions regarding shareholders required real rate of return. Our results imply that a significant speculative component exists in share prices (around 10% in mid-2000) and that share-price over/underevaluation has a life-span of around 4 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2001. "How Big is the Speculative Component in Australian Share Prices?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-14, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:01-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    2. Renée Fry & James Hocking & Vance L. Martin, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 17-33, March.
    3. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2005. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Inflation," FAME Research Paper Series rp129, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    4. Victoria J. Clout & Roger Willett & Tom Smith, 2016. "Analysing the market–book value relation in large Australian and US firms: implications for fundamental analysis and the market–book ratio," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(4), pages 1017-1040, December.
    5. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    6. Lance A. Fisher & Graham M. Voss, 2004. "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 359-372, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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