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Bootstrap Results From the State Space From Representation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model

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This paper builds upon the authors' previous work on transformation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model of the term structure of interest rates to state space form for a fairly general class of volatility specification including stochastic variables. Estimation of this volatility function is at the heart of the identification of the HJM model. The paper develops a bootstrap procedure for the HJM model cast into the non-linear filtering framework to analyse the statistical significance of the estimators. It is shown that not all combinations of the parameters of the volatility function are equally likely. The procedure also reveals distributional properties of the instantaneous spot rate of interest implied by the HJM model.

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  • Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1996. "Bootstrap Results From the State Space From Representation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model," Working Paper Series 66, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:66
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    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp66.pdf
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    1. Flesaker, Bjorn, 1993. "Testing the Heath-Jarrow-Morton/Ho-Lee Model of Interest Rate Contingent Claims Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 483-495, December.
    2. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. "An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    5. Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 143-159, March.
    6. Bhar, R. & Hunt, D.F., 1993. "Predicting the Short Term Forward Interest Rate Structure Using a Parsimonious Model," Papers e9307, Western Sydney - School of Business And Technology.
    7. R. Bhar & C. Chiarella, 1997. "Transformation of Heath?Jarrow?Morton models to Markovian systems," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, March.
    8. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    11. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "The Estimation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model by Use of Kalman Filtering Techniques," Working Paper Series 54, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heath-Jarrow-Morton model; arbitrage-free; stochastic volatility; non-linear filtering; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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