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Solving the Price-Earnings Puzzle

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Abstract

Accounting and finance professionals have empirically known that in the long run stock prices are roughly proportional to earnings. However, econometric testing could not been able to verify this expected contribution of earnings to stock prices, thus formed the price-earnings (PE) puzzle in the accounting literature. This paper seeks to solve this puzzle by allowing the earnings response coefficient to be a variable instead of a constant, and shows that the PE puzzle turns out to be a phenomenon of type I spurious regression in econometrics.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2002. "Solving the Price-Earnings Puzzle," Working Paper Series 116, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:116
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    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp116.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Easton, Peter D. & Harris, Trevor S. & Ohlson, James A., 1992. "Aggregate accounting earnings can explain most of security returns : The case of long return intervals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 119-142, August.
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    4. Kothari, S. P. & Zimmerman, Jerold L., 1995. "Price and return models," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-192, September.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    7. Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2002. "Modelling the Value of the S&P 500 - A System Dynamics Perspective," Working Paper Series 115, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay & Sloan, Richard G., 1994. "Lack of timeliness and noise as explanations for the low contemporaneuos return-earnings association," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 289-324, November.
    9. Lev, B, 1989. "On The Usefulness Of Earnings And Earnings Research - Lessons And Directions From 2 Decades Of Empirical-Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 153-192.
    10. Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2002. "Type I Spurious Regression in Econometrics," Working Paper Series 114, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2002. "Type I Spurious Regression in Econometrics," Working Paper Series 114, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Sanna, Dario, 2020. "A Fast and Parsimonious Way to Estimate the Implied Rate of Return of Equity," MPRA Paper 102003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Shenhuai Gao, 2002. "Modelling the Value of the S&P 500 - A System Dynamics Perspective," Working Paper Series 115, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price (return)-earnings relation; earnings response coefficient; type I spurious regresssion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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