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Share price anticipation of earnings and management's discussion of operations and financing

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  • Thomas Schleicher
  • Martin Walker

Abstract

This paper combines research on the measurement of disclosure quality and the measurement of share price anticipation of earnings to produce a new test of the usefulness of the information disclosed in management discussions of operations and financing for predicting future earnings. Market-Based Accounting Research has shown that earnings changes are anticipated and impounded in prices well before the financial year for which earnings are reported. This price anticipation leads to downward biased earnings response coefficients (ERCs) in the commonly estimated regression model of returns on contemporaneous earnings changes. We exploit predictable differences in the biasedness of the ERC estimate across firm-years to test the hypothesis that share prices are better informed when the annual report contains a detailed discussion of the firm's operations and financing. Our results suggest that such voluntary disclosure may have been useful in predicting future earnings changes. The effect would appear to be strongest (1) in models that examine one-period-ahead and two-period-ahead share price anticipation and (2) when we employ a disclosure index that captures forward-looking information.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Schleicher & Martin Walker, 1999. "Share price anticipation of earnings and management's discussion of operations and financing," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 321-335.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:acctbr:v:29:y:1999:i:4:p:321-335
    DOI: 10.1080/00014788.1999.9729591
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    1. Elena Beccalli & Peter Miller & Ted O'leary, 2015. "How Analysts Process Information: Technical and Financial Disclosures in the Microprocessor Industry," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 519-549, September.
    2. Omaima Hassan & Claire Marston, 2010. "Disclosure measurement in the empirical accounting literature - a review article," Accountancy Discussion Papers 1004, Accountancy Research Group, Heriot Watt University.
    3. Beattie, Vivien, 2005. "Moving the financial accounting research front forward: the UK contribution," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 85-114.
    4. Beretta, Sergio & Bozzolan, Saverio, 2004. "A framework for the analysis of firm risk communication," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 265-288.
    5. Khaled Hussainey & Thomas Schleicher & Martin Walker, 2003. "Undertaking large-scale disclosure studies when AIMR-FAF ratings are not available: the case of prices leading earnings," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 275-294.
    6. Schleicher, Thomas & Hussainey, Khaled & Walker, Martin, 2007. "Loss firms’ annual report narratives and share price anticipation of earnings," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 153-171.
    7. Bravo, Francisco, 2016. "Forward-looking disclosure and corporate reputation as mechanisms to reduce stock return volatility," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 122-131.
    8. Mouselli, Sulaiman & Jaafar, Aziz & Hussainey, Khaled, 2012. "Accruals quality vis-à-vis disclosure quality: Substitutes or complements?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 36-46.

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