IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/rpaper/69.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Filtering Equity Risk Premia From Derivative Prices

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper considers the measurement of the equity risk premium in financial markets. While there exists a vast amount of research into its behaviour, particularly in US markets, this is largely based on regression based techniques which do not capture well the dynamic and forward looking nature of the risk premium. In this paper the time variation of the unobserved risk premium is modelled by a system of stochastic differential equations connected by arbitrage arguments between the spot equity market, the index futures and options on index futures. Although various processes for the dynamics of the risk premium may be considered, we motivate and analyse a mean-reverting form. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, information on it is extracted using an unobserved component state space formulation of the system and Kalman filtering methodology. In order to cater for the time variation of volatility we use the option implied volatility in the dynamic equations for the index and its derivatives. This quantity is in a sense treated as a signal that impounds the market's forward looking view on the equity risk premium. The results using monthly Australian and U.S. market data over a period of five years are presented. The model fit is found to be statistically significant for both markets. The time series of the mean and standard deviation of the risk premia generated by the Kalman filter are compared with premia computed from ex-post returns. It is found that the ex-post risk premia have a general tendency to lie within a two standard deviations band around the filteredmean. However there are frequent movements outside the band, particularly on the downside, indicating that the ex-post measure may be understating the risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "Filtering Equity Risk Premia From Derivative Prices," Research Paper Series 69, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:69
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp69.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lo, Andrew W., 1988. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Itô Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 231-247, August.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    3. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
    4. Evans, Martin D D, 1994. "Expected Returns, Time-Varying Risk, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 655-679, June.
    5. Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    7. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    8. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Platen & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "A Benchmark Approach to Filtering in Finance," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 79-105, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 2000. "Infering Forward Looking Financial Market Risk Premia from Derivatives Prices," Research Paper Series 42, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Bhar Ramaprasad & Chiarella Carl & Runggaldier Wolfgang J., 2004. "Inferring the Forward Looking Equity Risk Premium from Derivative Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    4. Barr, David G. & Priestley, Richard, 2004. "Expected returns, risk and the integration of international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-97, February.
    5. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    6. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Does hedging tell the full story? : Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 14/2008, Bank of Finland.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Karl Ludwig Keiber & Helene Samyschew, 2015. "The role of sentiment in global risk premia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(20), pages 2073-2091, April.
    9. G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene Stulz, "undated". "Why do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements using ADRS," Research in Financial Economics 9501, Ohio State University.
    10. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
    11. Ortas, E. & Salvador, M. & Moneva, J.M., 2015. "Improved beta modeling and forecasting: An unobserved component approach with conditional heteroscedastic disturbances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 27-51.
    12. Alcock, Jamie & Sinagl, Petra, 2022. "International determinants of asymmetric dependence in investment returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2013. "Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 609-639, July.
    14. Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
    15. Suthawan Prukumpai, 2015. "Time-varying Industrial Portfolio Betas under the Regime-switching Model: Evidence from the Stock Exchange of Thailand," Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 22(2), pages 54-76, December.
    16. Jon Wongswan, 2003. "Contagion: an empirical test," International Finance Discussion Papers 775, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. José Rangel & Robert Engle, 2012. "The Factor–Spline–GARCH Model for High and Low Frequency Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 109-124.
    18. Massa, Massimo & O'Donovan, James & Zhang, Hong, 2022. "International asset pricing with strategic business groups1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 339-361.
    19. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The role of exchange rates in intertemporal risk-return relations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1670-1686, December.
    20. Turan Bali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "The Intertemporal Relation between Expected Return and Risk on Currency," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0909, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2009.
    21. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Menzel, Christina & Schröder, Henning, 2016. "Systematic risk behavior in cyclical industries: The case of shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 129-145.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.