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A Note on the Bias of using Futures Rates as a Proxy for the Instantaneous Forward Rate

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  • Thuy-Duong To

    (School of Banking and Finance, University of NSW)

Abstract

The note shows that there is a non-negligible bias in using the futures rates as a proxy for the instantaneous forward rates in the estimation of forward rate models. It is therefore desirable to derive the evolution of observable rates, then use the distributional properties of this evolution to do the estimation. In a general case where these properties are hard to obtained, a filtering technique is required.

Suggested Citation

  • Thuy-Duong To, 2004. "A Note on the Bias of using Futures Rates as a Proxy for the Instantaneous Forward Rate," Research Paper Series 149, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:149
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    File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp149.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. "Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
    2. Chapman, David A & Long, John B, Jr & Pearson, Neil D, 1999. "Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When Are Three Months Like an Instant?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 763-806.
    3. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy-Duong To, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility Structure of an Arbitrage-Free Interest Rate Model Via the Futures Markets," Finance 0409003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heath-Jarrow-Morton; forward rate; futures; estimation bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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