IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uta/papers/2012_08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock Markets and Growth: A Re-Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Chase Parker DeHan

Abstract

There is a large body of literature stressing the importance of developing financial markets, including stock markets, to enhance countries growth. I argue that the relationship between stock markets and growth is exaggerated and that the simple act of opening a formal stock market is not a good predictor of whether a country will experience economic growth. While it is possible that in some instances opening a stock market can lead to increased growth, I do not find any evidence that opening a stock market has any impact. This research uses two Bayesian econometric methods, Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), to discover if there are meaningful links between stock markets and growth in developing economies. Superior to traditional cross-sectional regressions, these methodologies allow for determining the true impact of certain variables. Using a similar dataset to multiple other studies, I find a zero, or weakly negative, correlation between the opening of a stock market and growth in developing countries. 82 countries and 32 independent variables were used comparing all stock market openings between 1960 and 1999 to those without a stock market on growth between 2002 and 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Chase Parker DeHan, 2012. "Stock Markets and Growth: A Re-Evaluation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2012_08, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2012_08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economics.utah.edu/research/publications/2012_08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    2. Rousseau, P. L. & Wachtel, P., 2000. "Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980-1995," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1933-1957, December.
    3. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    4. Baier, Scott L. & Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Tamura, Robert, 2004. "Does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 311-331, April.
    5. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    6. Leamer, Edward E, 1982. "Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 725-736, May.
    7. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
    8. Philip Arestis (ed.), 1993. "Money and Banking," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-13319-2, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chase Parker DeHan, 2012. "Stock Markets and Growth: A Re-Evaluation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah dehan_2012_08, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Peia, Oana & Roszbach, Kasper, 2015. "Finance and growth: Time series evidence on causality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 105-118.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4712tvppdq9m6q5i7t579thpvf is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Financialisation risks and economic performance," Working Papers hal-03471756, HAL.
    5. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    7. Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2015. "The Financial Development And Growth Nexus: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 549-565, July.
    8. María Carkovic & Ross Levine, 2002. "Finance and Growth: New Evidence and Policy Analyses for Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 11, pages 343-376, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p5296ie95 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tebogo Tshepo Kubanji & Simangaliso Biza-Khupe & Mogotsinyana Mapharing, 2021. "The Causality Relationship Between Financial Sector Profitability and the Botswana Economy," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 381-392, May.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p5296ie95 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2015. "Financial stability and economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-40.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p5296ie95 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Arshad Ali Bhatti & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2013. "Is the Growth Effect of Financial Development Conditional on Technological Innovation?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 188, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Financial stability and economic performance in Europe," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459729, HAL.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5euk7d0f8t81prfu1k2sspdcok is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Financial Sector Policies, and Long-Run Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28021.
    19. Concha, Ángela & Taborda, Rodrigo, 2014. "Insurance use and economic growth in Latin America. Some panel data evidence," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 81, pages 31-55, February.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4712tvppdq9m6q5i7t579thpvf is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Rosa Capolupo, 2018. "Finance, Investment and Growth: Evidence for Italy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 47(1), pages 145-186, February.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5euk7d0f8t81prfu1k2sspdcok is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    24. Chakraborty, Kalyan, 2020. "Development of financial market activities and economic growth: A cross-country evidence," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 26-47.
    25. Chung‐Hua Shen & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee, 2010. "What Makes International Capital Flows Promote Economic Growth? An International Cross‐Country Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 515-546, November.
    26. Brown, James R. & Martinsson, Gustav & Petersen, Bruce C., 2017. "Stock markets, credit markets, and technology-led growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 45-59.
    27. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian econometrics; stock markets; development JEL Classification: O17; E44; C11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2012_08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuutus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.