IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uta/papers/2007_02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign Exchange, Interest and the Dynamics of Public Debt in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos E. Schonerwald da Silva
  • Matías Vernengo

Abstract

The relationship between the exchange rate and public debt is intermediated by two mechanisms. On the one hand, exchange rate devaluation implies higher payment on local currency over the debt denominated in foreign currency. On the other hand, the rise of public debt leads a perception of higher default risk, forcing capital outflows and a devaluation of the exchange rate. The present paper develops a simple model where the exchange is crucial to analyze public debt dynamics. The paper also discusses the recent trajectory of the public debt in Latin America. The dynamics of the exchange rate is important for developing countries that do not have strong currencies and have a significant portion of public debt denominated in US dollars (original sin). Also, primary budget surpluses were crucial for the consistent and significant reduction of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Hence, the economic expansion has created a larger fiscal space for Latin American economies to expand infrastructure and social spending, and reduce unemployment levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos E. Schonerwald da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2007. "Foreign Exchange, Interest and the Dynamics of Public Debt in Latin America," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2007_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2007_02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    2. Alcino F. Câmara Neto & Matias Vernengo, 2004. "Fiscal policy and the Washington consensus: a Post Keynesian perspective," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 333-343.
    3. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
    4. Gale, William G. & Orszag, Peter R., 2003. "Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(3), pages 463-485, September.
    5. Lance Taylor, 1998. "Lax Public Sector, Destabilizing Private Sector: Origins of Capital Market Crises," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-11, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School, revised Oct 1998.
    6. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Stock-Flow with Consistent Accounting (SFCA) models
      by Matias Vernengo in Naked Keynesianism on 2012-07-21 19:49:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Sebastien & Dallery, Thomas, 2013. "L’expiation par l’austérité ou la stratégie de l’échec : une interprétation post-keynésienne de la crise des pays périphériques en zone euro [Expiation through austerity or the strategy of failure:," MPRA Paper 65735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nathan Perry & Carlos Schönerwald, 2009. "Institutions, Geography, and Terms of Trade in Latin America: A Longitudinal Econometric Analysis," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2009_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c5gs2rgi93abt1s4jkeabou1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Xavier Timbeau & Ofce Observatoire Français Des Conjonctures Économiques, 2014. "From austerity to stagnation how to avoid the deflation trap," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03603164, HAL.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c5gs2rgi93abt1s4jkeabou1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Erenburg, S. J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1995. "Public and private investment: Are there causal linkages?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-30.
    5. Ramírez-Cedillo, Eduardo. & López-Herrera, Francisco., 2014. "Inversión pública y privada en México y su incidencia en el crecimiento," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(19), pages 53-76, segundo s.
    6. Conrad, Klaus & Seitz, Helmut, 1997. "Infrastructure provision and international market share rivalry," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 715-734, November.
    7. Schreiner, Lena & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Investing in power grid infrastructure as a flexibility option: A DSGE assessment for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Yannis Psycharis & Vassilis Tselios, 2012. "Public investment and regional growth and convergence: Evidence from Greece," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(3), pages 543-568, August.
    9. Garikai Makuyana & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Public and private investment and economic growth in Malawi: an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 673-689, January.
    10. Vito Tanzi & Howell H. Zee, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 179-209, June.
    11. Miguel St. Aubyn & Álvaro Manuel Pina, 2006. "How should we measure the return on public investment in a VAR?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 8(5), pages 1-4.
    12. Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably Too Little, Certainly Too Late. An Assessment of the Juncker Investment Plan," PSE Working Papers hal-03459360, HAL.
    13. Pereira, Alfred M. & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2001. "Infrastructures and private sector performance in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 371-384, May.
    14. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham, 1996. "Public Capital and Private Production in Australia," MPRA Paper 52110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gary Madden & Scott J. Savage, 1998. "Sources of Australian Labour Productivity Change 1950–1994," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 362-372, December.
    16. Chatterjee, Santanu & Sakoulis, Georgios & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Unilateral capital transfers, public investment, and economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1077-1103, December.
    17. António Afonso & Eduardo Rodrigues, 2024. "Is public investment in construction and in R&D, growth enhancing? A PVAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(24), pages 2875-2899, May.
    18. Tim Besley, 2001. "From micro to macro: public policies and aggregate economic performance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 357-374, September.
    19. Tu Anh Trinh & Ducksu Seo & Unchong Kim & Thi Nhu Quynh Phan & Thi Hai Hang Nguyen, 2022. "Air Transport Centrality as a Driver of Sustainable Regional Growth: A Case of Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, August.
    20. Olivier Debande, 1997. "Le rôle du secteur privé dans le financement des infrastructures : une mise en perspective historique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(2), pages 197-230.
    21. Diego Martinez-Lopez, 2006. "Linking Public Investment to Private Investment. The Case of Spanish Regions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 411-423.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2a4lft86ed8kqpphgfkgrdfrk1 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Public Debt; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2007_02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuutus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.