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The Impact of Technological Change

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  • Bolboaca, Maria

Abstract

In this paper, I introduce novel measures of technological change, based on counts of books in the field of technology and technological standardization, in an otherwise standard vector autoregressive model, to show the relative importance of unanticipated productivity shocks, technology shocks, and anticipated productivity (news) shocks, in driving macroeconomic fluctuations. The results indicate that news shocks play a more important role than technology shocks at business cycle frequencies, while in the medium- to long-run technology shocks take the lead. Unanticipated productivity shocks do not seem to be a significant source of aggregate fluctuations regardless of the forecast horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Bolboaca, Maria, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Change," Economics Working Paper Series 1902, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2019:02
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    8. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    9. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity shock; technology shock; news shock; business cycle; structural vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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