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Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Explain the Backus-Smith Puzzle? Evidence from the Eurozone

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  • M. Hadzi-Vaskov

Abstract

The negative correlation between relative consumption growth and real exchange rate changes is a recurrent puzzle in international macroeconomics (Backus and Smith, 1993). Using panel dataset with quarterly observations for all 12 countries from the Eurozone after the introduction of the common currency (1999-2006), this paper demonstrates that the nominal exchange rate is the main source of the puzzle. When nominal exchange rates fluctuations are eliminated, relative consumption growth is positively correlated with the change in the real exchange rate. Moreover, this result is contrasted with alternative samples of (relatively) flexible exchange rate: while the inflation differential is still positively correlated, the nominal exchange rate is negatively correlated with the relative consumption growth. These findings are robust to alternative regression specifications, estimation methods, and data samples.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hadzi-Vaskov, 2007. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Explain the Backus-Smith Puzzle? Evidence from the Eurozone," Working Papers 07-32, Utrecht School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0732
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mykhaylova Olena & Staveley-O’Carroll James, 2014. "International transmission of productivity shocks with nonzero net foreign debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 579-624, January.
    2. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.
    3. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    4. Michael B Devereux & Viktoria V Hnatkovska, 2020. "Borders and Nominal Exchange Rates in Risk-Sharing," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1238-1283.
    5. Viktoria Hnatkovska & Michael Devereux, 2011. "Consumption Risk Sharing, the Real Exchange Rate, and Borders: Why Does the Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?," 2011 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Predrag Petroviæ, 2016. "Backus–Smith puzzle and the European Union: It’s not just the nominal exchange rate," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 393-418.
    7. Michael B Devereux, 2018. "Discussion of Charles Engel and Feng Zhu’s paper," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 12-18, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    9. Michael B. Devereux & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2011. "Consumption Risk-Sharing and the Real Exchange Rate: Why does the Nominal Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?," NBER Working Papers 17288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Charles Engel & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Exchange rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly fixed nominal exchange rate systems," BIS Working Papers 805, Bank for International Settlements.

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    Keywords

    International Risk-Sharing; Exchange Rates; Backus-Smith Puzzle;
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