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Inflation, political instability and stockmarket volatility in interwar Germany

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  • Hans Joachim Voth

Abstract

What determined the volatility of asset prices in Germany between the wars? This paper argues that the influence of political factors has been overstated. The majority of events increasing political uncertainty had little or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility of returns on them. Instead, it was inflation (and the fear of it) that is largely responsible for most of the variability in asset returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Joachim Voth, 2001. "Inflation, political instability and stockmarket volatility in interwar Germany," Economics Working Papers 535, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:535
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1115-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. J. Bradford De Long & Marco Becht, 1992. ""Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1876-1990," NBER Working Papers 4054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Audi & Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Amjad Ali & Razan Al-Masri, 2022. "An Event Based Analysis of Stock Return and Political Uncertainty in Pakistan: Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 39-56, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; stock returns; volatility of asset returns; political uncertainty; Germany (interwar);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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