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The effect of changing the number of elective hospital admissions on the levels of emergency provision

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Abstract

In England as elsewhere, policy makers are trying to reduce the pressure on costs caused by rising hospital admissions by encouraging GPs to refer less patients to hospital specialists.This could have an impact on elective treatment levels, particularly procedures for conditions which are not life-threatening and can be delayed or perhaps withheld entirely. This study attempts to identify the potential consequences on levels of emergency treatment if elective care is managed downwards. Using administrative data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England we estimate dynamic fixed effects panel data models for emergency admissions at Primary Care Trust and Hospital Trust levels for the years 2004–13, controlling for a group of area-specific characteristics and other secondary care variables. We find that increasing levels of elective care tends to increase the future requirement for emergency treatment. While there is no guarantee that the positive correlation between emergency and elective activity will persist if policy is effective in reducing levels of elective treatment, it does suggest that the cost-saving benefits to the NHS from reducing elective treatment may not be as great in aggregate as anticipated.

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  • Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Catia Nicodemo & Stuart Redding, 2017. "The effect of changing the number of elective hospital admissions on the levels of emergency provision," Economics Working Papers 1582, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1582
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    1. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José María Labeaga, 2016. "Monte Carlo evidence on the estimation of AR(1) panel data sample selection models," Working Papers 2016-01, FEDEA.
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health care services; elective and emergency hospital admissions; secondary care; NHS; dynamic panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I - Health, Education, and Welfare
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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