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Revisiting Budget and Trade Deficits in Lebanon: A Critique

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Abstract

This study re-examines the relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit in Lebanon. In contrast to earlier studies, we start by testing for a unit root in the presence of structural change using the Innovational Outlier (IO) model. This study also utilizes the newly proposed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to examine such a relationship. The results show that the endogenously determined times of the breaks coincide with observed real events occurring during the years of Civil War in Lebanon and especially after the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982. This study finds, as well, that the trade deficit in Lebanon has a long run impact on the budget deficit.

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  • Marashdeh, Hazem & Saleh, Ali Salman, 2006. "Revisiting Budget and Trade Deficits in Lebanon: A Critique," Economics Working Papers wp06-07, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-07
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    File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012220.pdf
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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    3. Ali Salman Saleh & Charles Harvie, 2005. "The Budget Deficit And Economic Performance: A Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 50(02), pages 211-243.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    2. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    3. Mohammad Monjurul Hoque & Zulkornain Yusop, 2012. "Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Export Performance in Bangladesh: An Empirical Investigation," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(2), pages 207-239, September.
    4. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    5. Tarek Bouazizi & Zouhaier Hadhek & Mongi Lassoued, 2020. "General Government Balance Shocks and Their Impact on Some Tunisian Macroeconomics Variables: Evidence from a VAR Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 69-83.
    6. Hoque, Mohammad Monjurul & Yusop, Zulkornain, 2010. "Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-52, February.
    7. Ahmad Ahmad & Olalekan Aworinde, 2015. "Structural breaks and twin deficits hypothesis in African countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficit; trade deficit; structural break; ARDL; Lebanon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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