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Windows of peace: the effect of ceasefires on economic recovery

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  • Alex Armand
  • Myriam Marending
  • Galina Vysotskaya

Abstract

While much of the literature studies causes and consequences of war, the reverberations of peace have rarely been studied. By focusing on the universe of ceasefire agreements since 1993, we study the causal effect of peace on economic recovery using a regression discontinuity in time approach. We estimate these impacts by temporally and spatially matching information on ceasefires with granular data about violence and economic recovery, allowing us to observe their dynamics at highly disaggregated levels and in temporal proximity to their entry into force.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Armand & Myriam Marending & Galina Vysotskaya, 2023. "Windows of peace: the effect of ceasefires on economic recovery," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-35, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    2. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777.
    3. Michael L. Anderson, 2014. "Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2763-2796, September.
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