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Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics

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  • Konstantin Makrelov
  • Channing Arndt
  • Rob Davies
  • Laurence Harris

Abstract

We analyse implications of financial sector dynamics for fiscal expenditure multipliers in recessionary conditions. We employ a stock-and-flow-consistent model for South Africa with four financial instruments and detailed balance sheets for the household, government, financial, non-financial, and foreign sectors, and the Reserve Bank. The increase in government expenditure positively affects the probability of default, valuations, and perceptions of risk. Higher inflows of foreign savings can increase the multiplier further by reducing the domestic savings constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-6, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2018-6
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    2. Alexis Habiyaremye & Olebogeng Molewa & Pelontle Lekomanyane, 2022. "Estimating Employment Gains of the Proposed Infrastructure Stimulus Plan in Post-Covid-19 South Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 540-567, February.
    3. Arogundade, Sodiq & Bila, Santos & Jan Derkacz, Arkadiusz, 2021. "Autonomous Expenditure Multipliers and Gross Value Added in South Africa," MPRA Paper 111115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lwazi Senzo Ntshangase & Thando Ngozo, 2024. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers in South Africa: A Structural Var Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(2), pages 45-55.

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