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Shadow prices for a small open economy under uncertainty: Which expected values are valid

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Abstract

This paper re-examines the validity of using expected values to evaluate the social profitability of public investments under uncertainty. Departing from the usual assumption of an aggregate good, the setting is a small open economy that faces stochastic world prices for tradable goods and productivity levels in domestic production. It is shown that the so-called 'border price rule'—the vector of the shadow prices of traded goods is a scalar multiple of their world price vector—is, in general, invalid when the vector of mean world prices is used.

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  • Clive Bell, 2017. "Shadow prices for a small open economy under uncertainty: Which expected values are valid," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-112, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2017-112
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2017-112.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan, 1983. "Shadow Prices for Project Evaluation Under Alternative Macroeconomic Specifications," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(3), pages 457-477.
    2. Bell, Clive, 2003. "Development Policy as Public Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773672.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clive Bell, 2017. "Project appraisal: A revival is long overdue," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-111, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Tony Addison & Ville Pikkarainen & Risto Rönkkö & Finn Tarp, 2017. "Development and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 169, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Tony Addison & Ville Pikkarainen & Risto Rönkkö & Finn Tarp, 2017. "Development and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-169, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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