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The effects of climate risk on hydropower P3 contract value: Preliminary study of the Inga 3 Dam

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  • Richard Swanson
  • Vivek Sakhrani

Abstract

Large hydropower dams are at the centre of a debate weighing the value and costs of renewable energy against the risks of climate change. The debate is especially relevant on the African continent, which offers vast hydropower potential, but which is exposed to possible climatic changes. This paper presents one possible framework for analysing, valuing, and mitigating the possible impacts of climate change on investment returns. It applies the framework to the proposed series of Inga projects. We find that project concessions can recapture value by phasing dam build-out.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Swanson & Vivek Sakhrani, 2016. "The effects of climate risk on hydropower P3 contract value: Preliminary study of the Inga 3 Dam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2016-30
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2016-30.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruce Kogut & Nalin Kulatilaka, 2001. "Capabilities as Real Options," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(6), pages 744-758, December.
    2. Ansar, Atif & Flyvbjerg, Bent & Budzier, Alexander & Lunn, Daniel, 2014. "Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-56.
    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    1. Fernandes, Gláucia & Gomes, Leonardo Lima & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira, 2018. "A risk-hedging tool for hydro power plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 370-378.

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    Keywords

    Environment; Renewable energy;

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