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African Growth Miracle or Statistical Tragedy?: Interpreting Trends in the Data Over the Past Two Decades

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  • Morten Jerven

Abstract

This paper reviews the current problems of national accounting in Sub-Saharan Africa. With the current uneven application of methods and availability of data, any ranking of countries according to gross domestic product levels is misleading. It is increasingly acknowledged that the problems associated with national accounts in Africa may have caused growth to be underestimated, and there are concerns that gross domestic product does not capture or cohere with concurrent trends on poverty and wealth from other surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Morten Jerven, 2014. "African Growth Miracle or Statistical Tragedy?: Interpreting Trends in the Data Over the Past Two Decades," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2014-114
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2014-114.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morten Jerven, 2011. "Growth, Stagnation or Retrogression? On the Accuracy of Economic Observations, Tanzania, 1961–2001," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(3), pages 377-394, June.
    2. Moradi, Alexander & Baten, Joerg, 2005. "Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Data and New Insights from Anthropometric Estimates," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1233-1265, August.
    3. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Maxim Pinkovskiy, 2010. "African Poverty is Falling...Much Faster than You Think!," NBER Working Papers 15775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Heston, Alan, 1994. "A brief review of some problems in using national accounts data in level of output comparisons and growth studies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-52, June.
    5. Kenneth Harttgen & Stephan Klasen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2013. "An African Growth Miracle? Or: What do Asset Indices Tell Us About Trends in Economic Performance?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, pages 37-61, October.
    6. Andy McKay, 2013. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Africa in the Last Two Decades: Evidence from an AERC Growth-Poverty Project and Beyond," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(suppl_1), pages -76, January.
    7. Xi Chen & William D. Nordhaus, 2010. "The Value of Luminosity Data as a Proxy for Economic Statistics," NBER Working Papers 16317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    9. Morten Jerven, 2011. "The quest for the African dummy: explaining African post‐colonial economic performance revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 288-307, March.
    10. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    11. Jerven, Morten, 2012. "An unlevel playing field: national income estimates and reciprocal comparison in global economic history," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 107-128, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jerven, Morten, 2016. "Discrepancies: Why Do GDP Growth Rates Differ?," Review of Agrarian Studies, Foundation for Agrarian Studies, vol. 6(1), July.
    2. Lionel Roger, 2018. "Blinded by the light? Heterogeneity in the luminosity-growth nexus and the African growth miracle," Discussion Papers 2018-04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. Baarsch, Florent & Granadillos, Jessie R. & Hare, William & Knaus, Maria & Krapp, Mario & Schaeffer, Michiel & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2020. "The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Anthony Mveyange, 2015. "Night lights and regional income inequality in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 085, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Mensah, Emmanuel Buadi & Szirmai, Adam, 2018. "Africa Sector Database (ASD): Expansion and update," MERIT Working Papers 2018-020, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Anthony Mveyange, 2015. "Night lights and regional income inequality in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-085, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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