IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unm/umamer/1998002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fables of Faubus?: Testing the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands Using a Simplified Kalman Filter Model

Author

Listed:
  • De Loo, Ivo

    (MERIT)

Abstract

The presence of structural breaks can seriously affect the outcome of standard regression methods like OLS. Although there are many methods available to deal with them, we focus here on a particular linear filtering method, namely the Kalman Filter. Its results vis a vis a regular OLS approach are illustrated by testing the sectoral shift hypothesis in the Netherlands. Although a rather simplified version of the Kalman Filter is used, it turns out to be a sufficient enough approximation. What we find, is that the variables capturing the sectoral shift hypothesis are the most important in explaining Dutch unemployment behaviour during the postwar period. Thus, the hypo-thesis is endorsed. On the other hand, our highly significant constant term indicates that the inclusion of other variables affecting unemploy-ment may alter the results. Our conclusion thus is a tentative one.

Suggested Citation

  • De Loo, Ivo, 1998. "Fables of Faubus?: Testing the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands Using a Simplified Kalman Filter Model," Research Memorandum 002, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:1998002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/rmpdf/1998/rm1998-002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel S. Hamermesh & James Grant, 1979. "Econometric Studies of Labor-Labor Substitution and Their Implications for Policy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(4), pages 543-562.
    2. Arnold Zellner, 1978. "Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zell78-1.
    3. Mario Fortin & Abdelkrim Araar, 1997. "Sectoral shifts, stock market dispersion and unemployment in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 829-839.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    5. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 359-368, February.
    6. Terence Mills & Gianluigi Pelloni & Athina Zervoyianni, 1997. "Unemployment Fluctuations in the UK: 1958-92," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 253-255.
    7. Mills, Terence C. & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1996. "Cyclical unemployment and sectoral shifts: Further tests of the Lilien hypothesis for the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-60, July.
    8. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    9. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    10. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, et al, 1987. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 53-67, January.
    11. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
    12. Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1982. "Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-284, November.
    13. Robert F. Engle, 1978. "Estimating Structural Models of Seasonality," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 281-308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ivo De Loo, 2000. "The Applicability of the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 3, pages 57-69, May.
    2. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 5(2), pages 127-176, December.
    3. Mills, Terence C. & Pelloni, Gianluigi & Zervoyianni, Athina, 1996. "Cyclical unemployment and sectoral shifts: Further tests of the Lilien hypothesis for the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-60, July.
    4. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Sectoral Shocks in Germany, The U.K. and, The U.S. A VAR-GARCH-M Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 65-85, February.
    5. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model," NBER Working Papers 2112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
    8. Jinzhu Chen & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    9. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    10. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Havenner, Arthur M., 1992. "A Bayesian approach to state space multivariate time series modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 315-346, June.
    11. Pastore, Francesco, 2013. "Primum vivere… Industrial Change, Job Destruction and the Geographical Distribution of Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 7126, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2016. "Neglected serial correlation tests in UCARIMA models," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 121-178, March.
    13. repec:wop:ubisop:0003 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Maravall, Agustin & Planas, Christophe, 1999. "Estimation error and the specification of unobserved component models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 325-353, October.
    15. Chou, Win Lin & Gau, Joshua J.S. & Liang, Kuo-Yuan, 2007. "Industrial business cycle linkages between Taiwan and the United States: Evidence from the IT industry," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-447, June.
    16. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 198-236, January.
    17. Svend Hylleberg, 2006. "Seasonal Adjustment," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Yanggyu Byun & Hae-shin Hwang, 2015. "Sectoral shifts or aggregate shocks? A new test of sectoral shifts hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 481-502, September.
    19. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 165-185, June.
    20. Girardin, Eric & Liu, Zhenya, 2005. "Bank credit and seasonal anomalies in China's stock markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 465-483.
    21. Garonna, Paolo & Sica, Francesca G. M., 2000. "Intersectoral labour reallocations and unemployment in Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(6), pages 711-728, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour economics ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:umamer:1998002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Leonne Portz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/meritnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.