College and Career Ready: How Well Does State Assessment Performance Predict?

Missouri, like most other states, uses assessments in its accountability system that purport to indicate whether a student is on a pathway to “college and career readiness.†The state longitudinal data system now has the capacity to directly test that claim. This study makes use of 8th-grade MAP scores in Math, Science, and Communication Arts for roughly 260,000 first-time Missouri freshman who began high school between Fall, 2009 and Fall, 2012. These students were tracked through high school and for five years following on-time high school graduation. Here are some key findings: There is a very strong positive association between MAP performance scores in 8th grade Math, Science, and Communication Arts and post-secondary college attendance and degree completion. This is true for the overall population and for White, Black, and Hispanic students disaggregated by gender. Proficiency matters on a single exam. Within the first five years following on-time high school graduation, a student who scored Proficient on any of the 8th grade MAP assessments is twice as likely to earn a post-secondary degree and three times as likely to earn a four-year degree as a student who scored Basic. Proficiency matters even more on all three exams. If all Missouri students who scored below Proficient on the 8th-grade MAP assessments raised their scores to Proficient, the number of students earning post-secondary degrees would increase by roughly 50 percent. The number of Black and Hispanic students earning post-secondary degrees would increase by roughly 152 and 75 percent, respectively. In sum, 8th-grade MAP proficiency scores are highly informative about whether students are on a pathway to “college and career readiness.â€