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Supply Constraints and Housing Prices

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of land use constraints on housing prices. We provide a new framework for evaluating policy when mobility across regions is allowed but limited. A key result is that loosening regulatory constraints within individual regions would have little effect on prices for plausible parameterizations. For example, we show reasonable conditions under which, even if every building in Manhattan were 100 stories tall, prices would fall by less than 15 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Saku Aura & Thomas Davidoff, 2006. "Supply Constraints and Housing Prices," Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    • Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:0607
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    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Why Have Housing Prices Gone Up?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 329-333, May.
    2. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2013. "Superstar Cities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 167-199, November.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2006. "Urban growth and housing supply," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 71-89, January.
    4. Hanushek, Eric A & Quigley, John M, 1980. "What Is the Price Elasticity of Housing Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 449-454, August.
    5. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven Saks, 2003. "Why is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in House Prices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2020, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
    7. Joseph Gyourko & Richard Voith, "undated". "The Price Elasticity of the Demand for Residential Land," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 329, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Albouy & Bryan A. Stuart, 2020. "Urban Population And Amenities: The Neoclassical Model Of Location," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 127-158, February.
    2. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, 2013. "Explaining the spatial variation in housing prices: an economic geography approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1673-1689, May.
    3. Deng, Yongheng & Gyourko, Joseph & Li, Teng, 2019. "Singapore's cooling measures and its housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Elliot Anenberg & Edward Kung, 2018. "Can More Housing Supply Solve the Affordability Crisis? Evidence from a Neighborhood Choice Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2007. "Fiscal policy, monopolistic competition, and finite lives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 325-359, January.
    6. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2017. "The Economic Implications of House Price Capitalization: A Synthesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 301-339, April.
    7. Yii, Kwang-Jing & Tan, Chai-Thing & Ho, Wing-Ken & Kwan, Xiao-Hui & Nerissa, Feng-Ting Shim & Tan, Yan-Yi & Wong, Kar-Horn, 2022. "Land availability and housing price in China: Empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Saku Aura & Francis K Cheung & Shawn Ni, 2015. "Why Doesn't the Hong Kong Government Sell More Public Land?," Working Papers 1511, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    9. Ke Wang & Jianjun Zhang & Wenhua Guo & Zhen Liu & Ze Xu, 2023. "A Perception and Judgement of Contributing Factors for Allocating Urban Residential Land: A Systematic Review and Statistical Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Douglas J. Krupka & Kwame N. Donaldson, 2013. "Wages, Rents, And Heterogeneous Moving Costs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 844-864, January.
    11. Christian A. L. Hilber & Wouter Vermeulen, 2016. "The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 358-405, March.
    12. Feng Yuan & Weiye Xiao & Yehua Dennis Wei, 2023. "Heterogeneous mechanisms of urban land price in China: a perspective of natural restrictions and strategic supply," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Büchler, Simon & Ehrlich, Maximilian v. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "The amplifying effect of capitalization rates on housing supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Mariano Kulish & Anthony Richards & Christian Gillitzer, 2012. "Urban Structure and Housing Prices: Some Evidence from Australian Cities," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 303-322, September.
    15. Hilber, Christian A. L. & Vermeulen, Wouter, 2012. "The impact of supply constraints on house prices in England," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59254, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Christian A. L. Hilber & Wouter Vermeulen, 2016. "The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 358-405, March.
    17. Anenberg, Elliot & Kung, Edward, 2020. "Can more housing supply solve the affordability crisis? Evidence from a neighborhood choice model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Murray, Cameron & Phibbs, Peter, 2022. "Evidence-lite zone: The weak evidence behind the economic case against planning regulation," OSF Preprints 69m23, Center for Open Science.
    19. Richard K. Green, 2021. "Is housing still the business cycle? Perhaps not," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    20. David Albouy, 2008. "Are Big Cities Bad Places to Live? Estimating Quality of Life across Metropolitan Areas," NBER Working Papers 14472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Wouter Vermeulen & Maarten Allers, 2013. "Fiscal Equalization and Capitalization: Evidence from a Policy Reform," CPB Discussion Paper 245.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    22. Wouter Vermeulen & Maarten Allers, 2013. "Fiscal Equalization and Capitalization: Evidence from a Policy Reform," CPB Discussion Paper 245, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    23. Hilber, Christian A. L., 2011. "The economics implications of house price capitalization a survey of an emerging literature," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58596, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Koster, Hans R.A. & van Ommeren, Jos & Rietveld, Piet, 2012. "Bombs, boundaries and buildings," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 631-641.
    25. Devin Bunten, 2017. "Is the Rent Too High? Aggregate Implications of Local Land-Use Regulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Supply and Markets; Regulatory Policies; Land Use Patterns.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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