IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uma/periwp/wp263.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

U.S. Government Deficits and Debt Amid the Great Recession: What the Evidence Shows

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Pollin

Abstract

This paper examines three sets of major issues regarding the current U.S. government’s fiscal deficit and outstanding debt, tied to the 2009 economic stimulus program, the American Recovery and Reinvest-ment Act (ARRA). First, I consider the claim that high levels of government borrowing drives up interest rates. These high rates then produce a heavy burden of government debt as well as heavy inflationary pressures. The evidence we review regarding each of these concerns demonstrates that none have emerged as serious matters since the enactment of the ARRA. Given this conclusion, the paper then examines why the ARRA did not then succeed in generating a strong economic recovery. I first consider the possible impact of ‘Ricardian Equivalence,’—the position that government stimulus programs, by their nature, are self-defeating. After arguing against this position, I advance three reasons for the failure of the ARRA to achieve a strong recovery: 1) The ARRA relied too heavily on tax cuts as a means of bolstering private spending; 2) Household wealth declined dramatically during the recession, tied to the collapse of the financial bubble. This in turn weakened the willingness of households to increase spending; and 3) Credit markets were locked up, especially for smaller businesses, despite the highly expansionary monetary policy stance adopted by the Federal Reserve. Building on these findings, I finally develop a series of policy proposals aimed at promoting both a strong recovery in the short term and at reducing any remaining structural deficit issues in the longer term. The short-term program focuses on extending loan guarantees, especially to small businesses; and taxing the excess reserves held by commercial banks. The longer-term agenda focuses on reducing government costs for health care and the military, and on increasing revenue through establishing taxes on financial market transactions. >> Download the article as published in the Cambridge Journal of Economics

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Pollin, 2011. "U.S. Government Deficits and Debt Amid the Great Recession: What the Evidence Shows," Working Papers wp263, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    • Handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp263
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://per.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_251-300/WP263.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "The Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 21546, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Robert Pollin, 2010. "Austerity Is Not a Solution," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 6-36.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
    4. Robert Pollin & James Heintz & Heidi Garrett-Peltier, 2009. "How Infrastructure Investments Support the U.S. Economy," Published Studies peri_infrastructure_inves, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    5. Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Charles Freedman, 2009. "The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/003, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Robert Pollin & Dean Baker & Marc Schaberg, 2003. "Securities Transaction Taxes for U.S. Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 527-558, Fall.
    7. repec:cbo:report:215461 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    9. Barro Robert J, 2009. "Demand Side Voodoo Economics," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-4, February.
    10. Lawrance L. Evans Jr., 2003. "Why the Bubble Burst," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2808.
    11. Robert Pollin, 2010. "Austerity is Not a Solution: Why the Deficit Hawks are Wrong," Working Papers wp235, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mosley, Max, 2021. "The importance of being earners: Modelling the implications of changes to welfare contributions on macroeconomic recovery," MPRA Paper 108620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Robert Pollin & James Heintz, 2013. "Study of U.S. Financial System," FESSUD studies fstudy10, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    3. Schreiner, Lena & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Investing in power grid infrastructure as a flexibility option: A DSGE assessment for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    5. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    6. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    7. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 247-277, July.
    8. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
    9. Girish Bahal & Anand Shrivastava, 2022. "Fiscal transfers and inflation: evidence from India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1837-1858, October.
    10. Sheremirov, Viacheslav & Spirovska, Sandra, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: Evidence from military spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    11. Jorge Puig, 2014. "Multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 60, pages 188-210, January-D.
    12. Jose Tavares & Rossen Valkanov, 2001. "The neglected effect of fiscal policy on stock and bond returns," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp413, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    13. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "Should transportation spending be included in a stimulus program? a review of the literature," Working Paper Series 2012-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2016. "Tax multipliers: Pitfalls in measurement and identification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 30-48.
    15. Sukanya Bose & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 379-401, November.
    16. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    17. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    18. Khalid Khan & Chen FEI & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Badar Nadeem Ashraf, 2015. "Impact of Government Spending on Private Consumption Using ARDL Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 239-248, February.
    19. Carlson Mark A & King Thomas & Lewis Kurt, 2011. "Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, June.
    20. Jooste, Charl & Liu, Guangling (Dave) & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2013. "Analysing the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 215-224.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp263. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Judy Fogg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/permaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.