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Fiscal Multipliers for India

Author

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  • Bose, Sukanya

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

  • Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

This paper attempts to present a framework for the estimation of fiscal multipliers for the Indian economy in the structural macroeconomic modelling tradition. Empirical estimates of short-run multipliers are obtained by giving shocks to a range of fiscal instruments - expenditures and taxes. As per our estimates, the values of capital expenditure multiplier, transfer payments multiplier and other revenue expenditure multiplier are 2.45, 0.98, and 0.99, respectively, while the tax multipliers are in the range of -1. Expenditure multipliers were also obtained in the presence of fiscal consolidation targets. These estimates again point to the strong multiplier effect of capital expenditure on output, and underscore the need to prioritize capital expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Bose, Sukanya & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers for India," Working Papers 13/125, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:13/125
    Note: Working Paper 125, 2013
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    Cited by:

    1. Raghu Bir Bista & Kiran Prasad Sankhi, 2022. "Assessing Multiplier Effects of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth in Nepal: SVAR Model Analysis," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 50-58.
    2. Pintu Parui, 2021. "A simple macro‐model of COVID‐19 with special reference to India," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 650-678, November.
    3. Nayak, Dinesh Kumar & Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2022. "Linkage between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-nationals: A Second Generation Panel Co-integration Techniques," Working Papers 22/374, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. N. R. Bhanumurthy & Sukanya Bose & Parma Chakravartti, 2018. "Targeting Debt and Deficits in India: A Structural Macroeconometric Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 87-119, December.
    5. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2019. "The Size of Fiscal Multipliers in India: A State Level Analysis Using Panel Vector Autoregression Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(6), pages 1393-1406, December.
    6. Anantha Ramu M.R. & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation versus Infrastructural Obligations," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 9(1), pages 49-67, June.
    7. World Bank, 2018. "South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30454.
    8. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2021. "Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 340-358, February.
    9. Bhanumurthy, N.R. & Bose, Sukanya & Satija, Sakshi, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Devolution and Indian Economy," Working Papers 19/287, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2020. "Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 683-707, September.
    11. D. J. Penzin & E. T. Adamgbe, 2019. "Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers and Its Macroeconomic Impact: The Case of Nigeria," Economic and Financial Review, Central Bank of Nigeria, vol. 57(2), June.
    12. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Bandi Kamaiah, 2021. "Fiscal policy and macroeconomic effects: structural macroeconometric model and simulation analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(1), pages 81-105, June.
    13. Iyanatul Islam, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation, Growth and Employment: International Evidence and Implications for India," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(1), pages 105-130, March.
    14. World Bank, "undated". "South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 30454, The World Bank Group.
    15. Riddhima Sobti, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks: What do the Indian Data Say?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 7-27, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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