IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulp/sbbeta/2020-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beyond climate and conflict relationships: new evidence from copulas analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Damette
  • Stephane Goutte

Abstract

This paper contributes to the new climate-society literature (Carleton and Hsiang, 2016) by analysing the role of climate in conflicts over the historical period from 1500 to 1800, in the vein of the recent literature initiated by Tol and Wagner (2010) and Burke and Hsiang (2014). As far as we know, this study is the first to apply copulas and time-varying copula analysis to climate-economics literature and to the analysis of climate and conflicts in a historical time series context. Effects of temperatures, precipitation and ENSO/NAO teleconnection on conflicts were investigated. Copula analysis enabled us to identify a positive dependence between temperatures and conflicts, and negative or positive dependences between anomalous precipitation and conflicts, by explicitly focusing on the joint marginal distribution of our variables. Using a time-varying approach, we were also able to precisely identify the periods/regimes during which the link between climate and conflict was genuinely active and then check the robustness of previous literature, such as Zhang et al. (2006, 2007, 2011).

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Damette & Stephane Goutte, 2020. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: new evidence from copulas analysis," Working Papers of BETA 2020-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2020-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://beta.u-strasbg.fr/WP/2020/2020-19.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bedoui, Rihab & Braeik, Sana & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled, 2018. "On the study of conditional dependence structure between oil, gold and USD exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 134-146.
    2. Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October.
    3. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    4. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Damette & Stephane Goutte & Qing Pei, 2020. "Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the historical China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2055-2071, December.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-02726466 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Damette, Olivier & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 295-323.
    2. Shoji, Masahiro, 2020. "Early-Life Circumstances and Adult Locus of Control: Evidence from 46 Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 99987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:fpr:2020cp:3(3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2022. "Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    6. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
    8. Spencer Dorsey, 2020. "The opportunity cost of intrastate violence and the out-of-sample validity of commodity price shocks," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(3), pages 309-324, July.
    9. Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 19458, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Camille Laville, 2021. "Keep Off the Grass : Grassland Scarcity and the Security Implications of Cross-Border Transhumance Between Niger and Nigeria," Working Papers hal-03350202, HAL.
    11. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Zhukov, Yuri M., 2016. "Trading hard hats for combat helmets: The economics of rebellion in eastern Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-15.
    13. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    14. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    15. Lu, Yifan & Yamazaki, Satoshi, 2023. "Fish to fight: Does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Nie, Zihan & Yang, Xiaojun, 2018. "Resource Scarcity and Cooperation: Evidence from an Irrigation System in Western China," EfD Discussion Paper 18-11, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    17. David Ubilava & Justin V. Hastings & Kadir Atalay, 2023. "Agricultural windfalls and the seasonality of political violence in Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1309-1332, October.
    18. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    19. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini & Keti Lelo & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2020. "Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-52, December.
    20. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    21. Muhammad Kabir Salihu & Andrea Guariso, 2017. "Rainfall inequality, trust and civil conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 205618510, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Conflicts; Social Disturbances; Global Crisis; Copulas.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2020-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask the person in charge to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bestrfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.