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Mesures de la productivité et fluctuations économiques

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  • Lucrezia Reichlin
  • Catherine Bruno

Abstract

[eng] This paper analyses the sources of fluctuations of the Solow residual. This is a widely used measure of growth of total factor productivity. The analysis is conducted on data on six sectors manufacturing, energy, market and non-market services, building construction), five OECD countries (France, West Germany, Italy, USA) from 1960 to1983. Results show that fluctuations of the Solow residuals are specific, but common to all the countries considered. Moreover affect all sectors with the same sign. These two features of the dynamics of the residual indicate that its dynamics cannot be explained by shocks originated from the supply side and that measure of productivity growth is contaminated by movements aggregate demand. [fre] Cet article propose une étude empirique des sources de fluctuations d'une mesure de la variation de la productivité totale des facteurs que nous appelons résidu de croissance. L'étude est menée pour six secteurs d'activité (agriculture, industrie, énergie, services marchands et non marchands, bâtiment et travaux publics) de cinq pays de l'OCDE (France, RFA, Italie, Japon, Etats-Unis) sur une période allant de 1960 à 1983. La méthode utilisée est celle de la décomposition de variance qui permet de déterminer si les sources de variation du résidu de croissance sont d'origine sectorielle ou nationale. Les résultats montrent que les fluctuations du résidu de croissance sont, d'une part, majoritairement d'origine sectorielle internationale et, d'autre part, similaires d'un secteur à l'autre. Ce second résultat témoigne du fait que la dynamique sectorielle internationale du résidu de croissance intègre des mouvements agrégés (communs aux pays et aux secteurs d'activité) qui prennent leur source du côté de la demande. Nous en concluons que le résidu de croissance est influencé par la demande. Ce fait incite à reconsidérer les conclusions de certains travaux récents qui, à partir de l'étude d'une mesure de la variation de la productivité totale de
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Suggested Citation

  • Lucrezia Reichlin & Catherine Bruno, 1991. "Mesures de la productivité et fluctuations économiques," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10213, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/10213
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    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
    2. Robert E. Hall, 1989. "Invariance Properties of Solow's Productivity Residual," NBER Working Papers 3034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 55-66, February.
    4. Paul Dubois, 1985. "Ruptures de croissance et progrès technique," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 181(1), pages 3-31.
    5. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    7. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    8. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Lordon, 1991. "Théorie de la croissance : quelques développements récents [Première partie : la croissance récente]," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(1), pages 157-211.
    2. Catherine Bruno & Franck Portier, 1993. "Cycle réel, représentation VAR et ouverture de l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(1), pages 245-281.

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