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The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth for a Selection of Asian Countries

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  • Mark Dray
  • A.P. Thirlwall

Abstract

The paper questions the assumption in all of mainstream growth theory that the Harrod natural rate of growth is exogenously determined and independent of the pressure of demand in an economy. First a simple statistical technique is presented for estimating the natural rate of growth, and then it is shown how it is possible to test for its endogeneity. The model is applied to ten Asian countries, and the results support the conclusions from previous studies of OECD and Latin American countries that the natural rate of growth is elastic to the actual rate of growth working through induced labour supply and productivity growth. Demand matters for economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Dray & A.P. Thirlwall, 2010. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth for a Selection of Asian Countries," Studies in Economics 1006, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    2. Magacho, Guilherme R. & Spinola, Danilo, 2020. "Supply and demand in Kaldorian growth models: a proposal for dynamic adjustment," MERIT Working Papers 2020-032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    5. Lavoie, M. & Stockhammer, Engelbert,, 2012. "Wage-led growth : concepts, theories and policies," ILO Working Papers 994709363402676, International Labour Organization.
    6. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.
    7. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Perche' la produttivita' degli investimenti varia tra paesi? (Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(279), pages 197-231.
    8. Molerés-Regalado, Estefanía. & Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio., 2013. "On Harrod’s Natural Rate of Growth and the Role of Demand: an Empirical Assessment," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 29-49, primer se.
    9. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    10. Senay, Acikgöz & Mert, Merter, 2015. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An alternative approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand-led growth; endogenous labour supply and productivity growth; Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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