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Bitcoin, Gold and the Dollar – a GARCH Volatility Analysis

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  • Anne Haubo Dyhrberg

Abstract

This paper explores the financial asset capabilities of bitcoin using GARCH models. The initial model showed several similarities to gold and the dollar indicating hedging capabilities and advantages as a medium of exchange. The asymmetric GARCH showed that bitcoin may be useful in risk management and ideal for risk averse investors in anticipation of negative shocks to the market. Overall bitcoin has a place on the financial markets and in portfolio management as it can be classified as something in between gold and the American dollar on a scale from pure medium of exchange advantages to pure store of value advantages.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Haubo Dyhrberg, 2015. "Bitcoin, Gold and the Dollar – a GARCH Volatility Analysis," Working Papers 201520, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201520
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/7168
    File Function: First version, 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
    2. Rainer Böhme & Nicolas Christin & Benjamin Edelman & Tyler Moore, 2015. "Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 213-238, Spring.
    3. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    2. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2018. "CryptoRuble: From Russia with Love," Papers 1801.05760, arXiv.org.
    3. Yechen Zhu & David Dickinson & Jianjun Li, 2017. "Analysis on the influence factors of Bitcoin’s price based on VEC model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Lukman, Adewale F. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Persistence and volatility spillovers of bitcoin price to gold and silver prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Aiman Hairudin & Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad & Yusniliyana Yusof, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies: A survey on acceptance, governance and market dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4633-4659, October.
    6. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "Altcoin-Bitcoin Arbitrage," Papers 1903.06033, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    7. Nidhi Malhotra & Saumya Gupta, 2019. "Volatility Spillovers and Correlation Between Cryptocurrencies and Asian Equity Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 208-215.
    8. Chen, Wei & Xu, Huilin & Jia, Lifen & Gao, Ying, 2021. "Machine learning model for Bitcoin exchange rate prediction using economic and technology determinants," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 28-43.
    9. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "Altcoin-Bitcoin Arbitrage," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 87-110.
    10. Joo, Young C. & Park, Sung Y., 2024. "Hedging Bitcoin with commodity futures: An analysis with copper, gas, gold, and crude oil futures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Moussa, Wajdi & Mgadmi, Nidhal & Béjaoui, Azza & Regaieg, Rym, 2021. "Exploring the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and commodities: New insights through STECM model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Aleksandra Rutkowska & Agata Kliber, 2021. "Say anything you want about me if you spell my name right: the effect of Internet searches on financial market," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 29(2), pages 633-664, June.
    13. Frode Kj rland & Maria Meland & Are Oust & Vilde yen, 2018. "How can Bitcoin Price Fluctuations be Explained?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 323-332.
    14. Zhang, Xin & Yang, Liansheng & Zhu, Yingming, 2019. "Analysis of multifractal characterization of Bitcoin market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 973-983.
    15. Jong-Min Kim & Chulhee Jun & Junyoup Lee, 2021. "Forecasting the Volatility of the Cryptocurrency Market by GARCH and Stochastic Volatility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-16, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; GARCH; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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