IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucm/doicae/1301.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Hui-Kuang Hsu

    (Department of Finance and Banking National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.)

Abstract

This paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data from 1 July 2008 to 29 June 2012 for 999 firms are used, which covers the Global Financial Crisis. The empirical findings indicate that there are size effects on volatility spillovers from the exchange rate to firm performance. Specifically, the risk for firm size has different effects from the three leading tourism sources to Taiwan, namely USA, Japan, and China. Furthermore, all the return series reveal quite high volatility spillovers (at over sixty percent) with a one-period lag. The empirical results show a negative correlation between exchange rate returns and stock returns. However, the asymmetric effect of the shock is ambiguous, owing to conflicts in the significance and signs of the asymmetry effect in the two estimated multivariate GARCH models. The empirical findings provide financial managers with a better understanding of how firm size is related to financial performance, risk and portfolio management strategies that can be used in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-01, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1301
    Note: For financial support, the first author is most grateful to the National Science Council, Taiwan, and the third author wishes to acknowledge the Australian Research Council, National Science Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/17679/1/1301.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2012. "Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression And Volatility Of Daily International Tourist Arrivals And Exchange Rates," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 397-419, September.
    3. Zimmerman, Jerold L., 1983. "Taxes and firm size," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 119-149, April.
    4. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    6. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    7. Gary S. Hansen & Birger Wernerfelt, 1989. "Determinants of firm performance: The relative importance of economic and organizational factors," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(5), pages 399-411, September.
    8. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Do We Really Need Both Bekk And Dcc? A Tale Of Two Multivariate Garch Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 736-751, September.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
    10. Michael McAleer & Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan, 2009. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Conditional Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 422-440.
    11. Gerald D. Gay & Jouahn Nam, 1998. "The Underinvestment Problem and Corporate Derivatives Use," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
    12. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2008. "Scalar BEKK and indirect DCC," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 537-549.
    13. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    14. Mehran, Hamid, 1995. "Executive compensation structure, ownership, and firm performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-184, June.
    15. Tufano, Peter, 1996. "Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September.
    16. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-470, May.
    17. Gabriel Hawawini & Venkat Subramanian & Paul Verdin, 2003. "Is performance driven by industry‐or firm‐specific factors? A new look at the evidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-16, January.
    18. Cohen, Wesley M., 2010. "Fifty Years of Empirical Studies of Innovative Activity and Performance," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 129-213, Elsevier.
    19. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    20. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    21. Berger, Philip G. & Ofek, Eli, 1995. "Diversification's effect on firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 39-65, January.
    22. Blake, Adam & Arbache, Jorge Saba & Sinclair, Thea & Teles, Vladimir Kuhl, 2010. "Tourism and poverty relief," Textos para discussão 237, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beladi, Hamid & Chao, Chi Chur & Hu, May, 2016. "Another January effect—Evidence from stock split announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 123-138.
    2. Yu, Lin & Liu, Xiaoquan & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai Kin, 2020. "Size and value effects in high-tech industries: The role of R&D investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Allen, David & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Recent developments in financial economics and econometrics: An overview," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 217-226.
    4. Rupika Khanna & Chandan Sharma & Abhay Pant, 2022. "COVID-19, firm characteristics and stock volatility: new evidence from the Indian tourism sector," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(6), pages 1563-1585, October.
    5. G l ah Gen er elik, 2020. "Volatility Modelling for Tourism Sector Stocks in Borsa Istanbul," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 158-165.
    6. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Impossible Trinity and Financial Markets – An Examination of Inflation Volatility Spillovers," MPRA Paper 77923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    7. Mitra, Subrata Kumar & Chattopadhyay, Manojit & Jana, R.K., 2019. "Spillover analysis of tourist movements within Europe," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the travel and leisure industry returns: Some international evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 451-472, March.
    9. Ali, Jabir, 2016. "Performance of small and medium-sized food and agribusiness enterprises: evidence from Indian firms," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(4), September.
    10. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang & McAleer, Michael, 2014. "The impact of China on stock returns and volatility in the Taiwan tourism industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 381-401.
    11. Shi, Yanlin & Ho, Kin-Yip & Liu, Wai-Man, 2016. "Public information arrival and stock return volatility: Evidence from news sentiment and Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 291-312.
    12. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen & Yi-Ting Peng, 2021. "Tourism development and happiness: International evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1101-1136, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang, 2013. "Modelling Volatility Size Effects for Firm Performance: The Impact of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," MPRA Paper 45691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & Hsu, Hui-Kuang & McAleer, Michael, 2014. "The impact of China on stock returns and volatility in the Taiwan tourism industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 381-401.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2018. "Modelling volatility spillovers for bio-ethanol, sugarcane and corn spot and futures prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1002-1018.
    4. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & González-Serrano, Lydia & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2013. "Currency hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 164-182.
    6. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yanghuiting, 2018. "Testing Co-Volatility spillovers for natural gas spot, futures and ETF spot using dynamic conditional covariances," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 984-997.
    7. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Yu-Ann Wang, 2016. "Modelling volatility spillovers for bio-ethanol, sugarcane and corn," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    8. Caporin, Massimiliano, 2013. "Equity and CDS sector indices: Dynamic models and risk hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 261-275.
    9. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-010/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Jan 2017.
    10. Abdul Hakim & Michael McAleer, 2009. "VaR Forecasts and Dynamic Conditional Correlations for Spot and Futures Returns on Stocks and Bonds," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-676, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Optimizing Value‐At‐Risk And Daily Capital Charges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 831-849, December.
    12. Dimitrios Kartsonakis-Mademlis & Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2020. "Does the Choice of the Multivariate GARCH Model on Volatility Spillovers Matter? Evidence from Oil Prices and Stock Markets in G7 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 164-182.
    13. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF with VAR and Diagonal BEKK," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, September.
    14. R. Khalfaoui & M. Boutahar, 2012. "Portfolio Risk Evaluation: An Approach Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlations Models and Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00793068, HAL.
    15. Chang, C-L. & Hsieh, T-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2016. "How are VIX and Stock Index ETF Related?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2016-07, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    16. Caporin, Massimiliano & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Gonzalez-Serrano, Lydia, 2014. "Currency hedging strategies in strategic benchmarks and the global and Euro sovereign financial crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 159-177.
    17. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    18. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Forecasting energy market volatility using GARCH models: Can multivariate models beat univariate models?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2167-2181.
    19. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    20. Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2014. "Robust ranking of multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 172-185.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; Size effects; Small-firm effects; Financial performance; Spillover effects; MGARCH; VARMA; BEKK.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Águeda González Abad (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feucmes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.