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The tourist area lifecycle and the unit roots test. A new economic perspective for a classic paradigm in tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Antoni Luis Alcover Casasnovas

    (Universitat de les Illes Balears)

  • Andreu Sansó Rosselló

    (Universitat de les Illes Balears)

Abstract

As many traditional tourist destinations have experienced a slow down in tourist arrivals and expenditure, Butler’s (1980) Tourist Area Life Cycle (TALC) model seems to attract new attention from tourist researchers. The TALC describes the evolution of a tourist area from its discovery to its final stage picturing an evolutionary path represented with an S shaped curve associated to the logistic function. The limits of growth and the shape of the curve represent the existence of congestion problems and upper carrying capacity limits. But the TALC has been repeatedly criticized by its lack of operability and its departures from the anticipated curve. An alternative way to test its existence is to estimate its theoretical logistic curve and test the presence of unit roots. The application of this new technique to Majorca concludes that the evolutionary path predicted by the TALC does not apply in this particular case. Even more, the empirical results could imply that shocks that affect to this destination will have not temporary but permanent effects, encouraging the adoption of pro-active policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoni Luis Alcover Casasnovas & Andreu Sansó Rosselló, 2009. "The tourist area lifecycle and the unit roots test. A new economic perspective for a classic paradigm in tourism," DEA Working Papers 38, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    • Handle: RePEc:ubi:deawps:38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Irmi Seidl & Clem A. Tisdell, 2003. "Carrying capacity reconsidered: from Malthus' population theory to cultural carrying capacity," Chapters, in: Ecological and Environmental Economics, chapter 13, pages 192-206, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold & Dimitrios Vougas, 1998. "Unit roots and smooth transitions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 83-97, January.
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    Keywords

    Destination lifecycle; carrying capacity; logistic function; unit root test;
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