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World GDP, Anthropogenic Emissions, and Global Temperatures, Sea Level, and Ice Cover

Author

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  • Luca Benati

Abstract

I use Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to forecast global temperatures and sea level and ice cover in the Northern hemisphere until 2100, by exploiting (i) their long-run equilibrium relationship with climate change drivers (CCDs) and (ii) the relationship between world GDP and anthropogenic CCDs. Assuming that trend GDP growth will remain unchanged after 2024, and the world economy will fully decarbonize by 2050, global temperatures and sea level are projected to increase by 2.3 Celsius degrees and 38 centimeters respectively compared to pre-industrial times. Further, uncertainty is substantial, pointing to significant upward risks. Because of this, bringing climate change under control will require massive programme of carbon removal from the atmosphere, in order to bring anthropogenic CCDs back to the levels of the end of the XX century.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Benati, 2025. "World GDP, Anthropogenic Emissions, and Global Temperatures, Sea Level, and Ice Cover," Diskussionsschriften dp2503, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2503
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Bayesian VARs; stochastic volatility; cointegration; forecasting; conditional forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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