IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tse/wpaper/127946.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary values of increasing life expectancy: sensitivity to shifts of the survival curve

Author

Listed:
  • Hammitt, James K.
  • Tuncel, Tuba

Abstract

Individuals’ monetary values of decreases in mortality risk depend on the magnitude and timing of the risk reduction. We elicited stated preferences among three time paths of risk reduction yielding the same increase in life expectancy (decreasing risk for the next decade, subtracting a constant from or multiplying risk by a constant in all future years) and willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reductions differing in timing and life-expectancy gain. Respondents exhibited heterogeneous preferences over the alternative time paths, with almost 90 percent reporting transitive orderings. WTP is statistically significantly associated with life-expectancy gain (between about 7 and 28 days) and with respondents’ stated preferences over the alternative time paths. Estimated value per statistical life year (VSLY) can differ by time path and averages about $500,000, roughly consistent with conventional estimates obtained by dividing estimated value per statistical life by discounted life expectancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hammitt, James K. & Tuncel, Tuba, 2023. "Monetary values of increasing life expectancy: sensitivity to shifts of the survival curve," TSE Working Papers 23-1416, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:127946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/doc/wp/2023/wp_tse_1416.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Alberini & Alistair Hunt & Anil Markandya, 2006. "Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(2), pages 251-264, February.
    2. Joseph E. Aldy & W. Kip Viscusi, 2008. "Adjusting the Value of a Statistical Life for Age and Cohort Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 573-581, August.
    3. Jacquemet, Nicolas & Joule, Robert-Vincent & Luchini, Stéphane & Shogren, Jason F., 2013. "Preference elicitation under oath," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 110-132.
    4. Joseph E. Aldy & W. Kip Viscusi, 2007. "Age Differences in the Value of Statistical Life: Revealed Preference Evidence," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 241-260, Summer.
    5. Hammitt, James K. & Herrera-Araujo, Daniel, 2018. "Peeling back the onion: Using latent class analysis to uncover heterogeneous responses to stated preference surveys," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 165-189.
    6. Cameron, Trudy Ann & DeShazo, J.R., 2013. "Demand for health risk reductions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 87-109.
    7. W. Kip Viscusi, 2015. "The Role of Publication Selection Bias in Estimates of the Value of a Statistical Life," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-52, Winter.
    8. Alberini Anna, 1995. "Efficiency vs Bias of Willingness-to-Pay Estimates: Bivariate and Interval-Data Models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 169-180, September.
    9. Corso, Phaedra S & Hammitt, James K & Graham, John D, 2001. "Valuing Mortality-Risk Reduction: Using Visual Aids to Improve the Validity of Contingent Valuation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 165-184, September.
    10. James Hammitt & Jin-Tan Liu, 2004. "Effects of Disease Type and Latency on the Value of Mortality Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 73-95, January.
    11. Krupnick, Alan & Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Simon, Nathalie & O'Brien, Bernie & Goeree, Ron & Heintzelman, Martin, 2002. "Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 161-186, March.
    12. Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Krupnick, Alan & Simon, N.B.Nathalie B., 2004. "Does the value of a statistical life vary with age and health status? Evidence from the US and Canada," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 769-792, July.
    13. Hammitt, James K & Graham, John D, 1999. "Willingness to Pay for Health Protection: Inadequate Sensitivity to Probability?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 33-62, April.
    14. James K. Hammitt, 2020. "Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 129-154, October.
    15. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00731244 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Marie-Eve Héroux & H. Anderson & Richard Atkinson & Bert Brunekreef & Aaron Cohen & Francesco Forastiere & Fintan Hurley & Klea Katsouyanni & Daniel Krewski & Michal Krzyzanowski & Nino Künzli & Inga , 2015. "Quantifying the health impacts of ambient air pollutants: recommendations of a WHO/Europe project," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 60(5), pages 619-627, July.
    17. Yew-Kwang Ng, 1992. "The older the more valuable: Divergence between utility and dollar values of life as one ages," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Richard A. Hirth & Michael E. Chernew & Edward Miller & A. Mark Fendrick & William G. Weissert, 2000. "Willingness to Pay for a Quality-adjusted Life Year," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 20(3), pages 332-342, July.
    19. W. Kip Viscusi & Clayton Masterman, 2017. "Anchoring biases in international estimates of the value of a statistical life," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 103-128, April.
    20. Jytte Nielsen & Susan Chilton & Michael Jones-Lee & Hugh Metcalf, 2010. "How would you like your gain in life expectancy to be provided? An experimental approach," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 195-218, December.
    21. Johannesson, Magnus & Johansson, Per-Olov & Lofgren, Karl-Gustaf, 1997. "On the Value of Changes in Life Expectancy: Blips versus Parametric Changes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 221-239, December.
    22. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. de-Magistris, Tiziana & Pascucci, Stefano, 2014. "The effect of the solemn oath script in hypothetical choice experiment survey: A pilot study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 252-255.
    24. Viscusi, W. Kip & Hersch, Joni, 2008. "The mortality cost to smokers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 943-958, July.
    25. Dan Ariely & George Loewenstein & Drazen Prelec, 2003. ""Coherent Arbitrariness": Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 73-106.
    26. Joseph S. Pliskin & Donald S. Shepard & Milton C. Weinstein, 1980. "Utility Functions for Life Years and Health Status," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 206-224, February.
    27. Masterman, Clayton J. & Viscusi, W. Kip, 2018. "The Income Elasticity of Global Values of a Statistical Life: Stated Preference Evidence," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 407-434, October.
    28. Johannesson, Magnus & Johansson, Per-Olov, 1996. "To Be, or Not to Be, That Is the Question: An Empirical Study of the WTP for an Increased Life Expectancy at an Advanced Age," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 163-174, September.
    29. Henrik Lindhjem & Ståle Navrud & Nils Axel Braathen & Vincent Biausque, 2011. "Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions from Environmental, Transport, and Health Policies: A Global Meta‐Analysis of Stated Preference Studies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1381-1407, September.
    30. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    31. Johannesson, Magnus & Johansson, Per-Olov, 1997. "Quality of life and the WTP for an increased life expectancy at an advanced age," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 219-228, August.
    32. Michael Jones-Lee & Susan Chilton & Hugh Metcalf & Jytte Nielsen, 2015. "Valuing gains in life expectancy: Clarifying some ambiguities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 1-21, August.
    33. James Hammitt, 2013. "Admissible utility functions for health, longevity, and wealth: integrating monetary and life-year measures," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 311-325, December.
    34. James E. Smith & Ralph L. Keeney, 2005. "Your Money or Your Life: A Prescriptive Model for Health, Safety, and Consumption Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1309-1325, September.
    35. Jill Morris & James K. Hammitt, 2001. "Using Life Expectancy to Communicate Benefits of Health Care Programs in Contingent Valuation Studies," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 21(6), pages 468-478, December.
    36. James K. Hammitt, 2007. "Valuing Changes in Mortality Risk: Lives Saved Versus Life Years Saved," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 228-240, Summer.
    37. Alan Krupnick, 2007. "Mortality-risk Valuation and Age: Stated Preference Evidence," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 261-282, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James K. Hammitt, 2023. "Consistent valuation of a reduction in mortality risk using values per life, life year, and quality‐adjusted life year," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(9), pages 1964-1981, September.
    2. Kniesner, Thomas J. & Viscusi, W. Kip, 2024. "A Tale of the Tails: The Value of a Statistical Life at the Tails of the Age Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 16867, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James K. Hammitt & Tuba Tunçel, 2023. "Monetary values of increasing life expectancy: Sensitivity to shifts of the survival curve," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 239-269, December.
    2. Hammitt, James K., 2023. "Consistent Valuation of a Reduction in Mortality Risk using Values per Life, Life Year, and Quality-Adjusted Life Year," TSE Working Papers 23-1431, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. James K. Hammitt, 2023. "Consistent valuation of a reduction in mortality risk using values per life, life year, and quality‐adjusted life year," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(9), pages 1964-1981, September.
    4. James K. Hammitt, 2020. "Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 129-154, October.
    5. Lisa A. Robinson & James K. Hammitt, 2016. "Valuing Reductions in Fatal Illness Risks: Implications of Recent Research," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 1039-1052, August.
    6. Lars Hein & Pete Roberts & Lucia Gonzalez, 2016. "Valuing a Statistical Life Year in Relation to Clean Air," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(04), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Hammitt, James K. & Herrera-Araujo, Daniel, 2018. "Peeling back the onion: Using latent class analysis to uncover heterogeneous responses to stated preference surveys," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 165-189.
    8. James Hammitt & Tuba Tunçel, 2015. "Preferences for life-expectancy gains: Sooner or later?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 79-101, August.
    9. Henrik Andersson & James Hammitt & Gunnar Lindberg & Kristian Sundström, 2013. "Willingness to Pay and Sensitivity to Time Framing: A Theoretical Analysis and an Application on Car Safety," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(3), pages 437-456, November.
    10. Henrik Andersson & Nicolas Treich, 2011. "The Value of a Statistical Life," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Jin, Yana & Andersson, Henrik & Zhang, Shiqiu, 2020. "Do preferences to reduce health risks related to air pollution depend on illness type? Evidence from a choice experiment in Beijing, China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. James K. Hammitt, 2017. "Valuing Non-Fatal Health Risks: Monetary and Health-Utility Measures," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(3), pages 335-356.
    13. Trudy Cameron & J. DeShazo & Peter Stiffler, 2010. "Demand for health risk reductions: A cross-national comparison between the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-273, December.
    14. Andrea Leiter, 2011. "Age effects in monetary valuation of reduced mortality risks: the relevance of age-specific hazard rates," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 12(4), pages 331-344, August.
    15. Maureen Cropper & James K. Hammitt & Lisa A. Robinson, 2011. "Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions: Progress and Challenges," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 313-336, October.
    16. James Hammitt & Kevin Haninger, 2010. "Valuing fatal risks to children and adults: Effects of disease, latency, and risk aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 57-83, February.
    17. Michael Jones-Lee & Susan Chilton & Hugh Metcalf & Jytte Nielsen, 2015. "Valuing gains in life expectancy: Clarifying some ambiguities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 1-21, August.
    18. Andersson, Henrik, 2006. "Willingness to Pay for Road Safety and Estimates of the Risk of Death: Evidence from a Swedish Contingent Valuation Study," Working Papers 2006:5, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    19. Kevin Haninger & James K. Hammitt, 2011. "Diminishing Willingness to Pay per Quality‐Adjusted Life Year: Valuing Acute Foodborne Illness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1363-1380, September.
    20. Lisa A. Robinson & James K. Hammitt, 2013. "Behavioral economics and the conduct of benefit–cost analysis: towards principles and standards," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 10, pages 317-363, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    value per statistical life: value per statistical life year; mortality risk; stated preference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:127946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tsetofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.