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Catastrophes, delays, and learning

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  • Salanié, François
  • Liski, Matti

Abstract

We propose a simple and general model of experimentation in which reaching untried levels of a stock variable may, after a stochastic delay, lead to a catastrophe. Hence, at any point in time a catastrophe might well be under way, due to past experiments. We show how to measure this legacy of the past from prior beliefs and the chronicle of stock levels. We characterize the optimal policy as a function of the legacy and show that it leads to a new protocol for planning that applies to a general class of problems, encompassing the study of pandemics or climate change. Several original policy predictions follow, e.g., experimentation can stop but resume later.

Suggested Citation

  • Salanié, François & Liski, Matti, 2020. "Catastrophes, delays, and learning," TSE Working Papers 20-1148, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:124745
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    catastrophes; experimentation; delays;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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