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Modelling group processes and effort estimation in Project Management using the Choquet integral: an MCDM approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alessio Bonetti
  • Silvia Bortot
  • Mario Fedrizzi
  • Silvio Giove
  • Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira
  • Andrea Molinari

Abstract

We investigate the group processes involved in effort estimation in the context of Project Management. The groups considered are formed by "experts" (people with specific technical competence) and "non-experts"¬ù (people with less specific technical competence, usually experts in related fields), because the typically complementary bias of the two classes contribute to a more balanced estimate. In this paper we exploit further the synergies between experts and non-experts in an MCDM framework, aggregating the individual estimates by means of non-additive Choquet integration, and representing the complementary bias by the multiagent interaction structure underlying the capacity. We present some examples and computer simulations whose aggregation results outperform those of the classical weighted mean (additive case), showing lower MMRE (mean magnitude of the relative error between the central estimate and the actual value) and higher HitRate (at which the interval estimate contains the actual value).

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Bonetti & Silvia Bortot & Mario Fedrizzi & Silvio Giove & Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira & Andrea Molinari, 2011. "Modelling group processes and effort estimation in Project Management using the Choquet integral: an MCDM approach," DISA Working Papers 2011/12, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised Sep 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:trt:disawp:2011/12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Brice Mayag & Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2011. "A representation of preferences by the Choquet integral with respect to a 2-additive capacity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 297-324, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Group decisions and multi-agent systems; multiple criteria analysis and criteria interaction; aggregation functions; Choquet integration; Project Management; effort estimation.;
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