IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/trn/utwpas/1203.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Complexity and Endogenous Instability

Author

Listed:
  • Sami Al-Suwailem

Abstract

The global financial crisis proved the critical impact of the gap between individual rationality and group rationality. This gap is not supposed to arise in a Neoclassical world, but it frequently arises in a world as complex as ours. The paper explores how endogenous instability might arise due to such a gap, and what behavioral rules might help to mitigate its impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Al-Suwailem, 2012. "Complexity and Endogenous Instability," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1203, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpas:1203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.assru.economia.unitn.it/files/DP_3_2012_I.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ernst Fehr & Simon Gächter, 2000. "Fairness and Retaliation: The Economics of Reciprocity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 159-181, Summer.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    3. Smith,Vernon L., 2009. "Rationality in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521133388, October.
    4. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5, December.
    5. J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Research on Complexity," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3625.
    6. Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 695-707, February.
    7. Dean Foster & H Peyton Young, 1999. "On the Impossibility of Predicting the Behavior of Rational Agents," Economics Working Paper Archive 423, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2001.
    8. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    9. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    12. Jörg Mayer, 2002. "The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of the Literature," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 875-894, June.
    13. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 183-202.
    14. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2001. "Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World," MPRA Paper 9929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    16. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May.
    17. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "Thy Neighbor's Portfolio: Word‐of‐Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trades of Money Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2801-2824, December.
    18. Roger Koppl & J. Barkley Rosser Jr, 2002. "All That I Have to Say Has Already Crossed Your Mind," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 339-360, November.
    19. John H. Nachbar, 2005. "Beliefs in Repeated Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(2), pages 459-480, March.
    20. Vasilev, Aleksandar & Maksumov, Rashid, 2010. "Critical analysis of Chapter 23 of Keynes’s Notes on Mercantilism in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936)," EconStor Research Reports 155318, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    21. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    22. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    23. Mark D White, 2009. "Kantian Ethics and the Prisoners' Dilemma," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 137-143.
    24. Roger Koppl & Barkley Rosser, 2002. "All that I have to say will already have crossed your mind," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 185, Society for Computational Economics.
    25. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Economics needs a scientific revolution," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7217), pages 1181-1181, October.
    26. Jan Peil & Irene van Staveren (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Economics and Ethics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4252.
    27. Markose, Sheri M & Alentorn, Amadeo & Krause, Andreas, 2004. "Dynamic Learning, Herding and Guru Effects in Networks," Economics Discussion Papers 3732, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    28. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2010. "The endogenous dynamics of markets: price impact and feedback loops," Papers 1009.2928, arXiv.org.
    29. World Bank, 2001. "Finance for Growth : Policy Choices in a Volatile World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13895.
    30. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2009. "The (unfortunate) complexity of the economy," Papers 0904.0805, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ilham Boularhmane & Rajae Aboulaich, 2016. "Valuation of Quarterly Stock Prices: Applying Ethical Principles to Discounted Cash Flow Method," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1254-1261.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Suwailem, Sami, 2014. "Complexity and endogenous instability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 393-410.
    2. Koppl, Roger, 2010. "Some epistemological implications of economic complexity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 859-872, December.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2012. "Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 999-1018, January.
    6. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    7. Clément Mathonnat & Alexandru Minea & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Does more finance lead to longer crises?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-135, January.
    8. Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Interactions between the real economy and the stock market," BERG Working Paper Series 84, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    9. Tyler Muir, 2017. "Financial Crises and Risk Premia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 765-809.
    10. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2012. "Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 999-1018, January.
    11. Roland Bénabou, 2013. "Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 429-462.
    12. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    13. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    14. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2012. "Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 999-1018, January.
    15. William R. White, 2014. "The Prudential Regulation of Financial Institutions: Why Regulatory Responses to the Crisis Might Not Prove Sufficient," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1108, OECD Publishing.
    16. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    17. Roger L. Ransom, 2016. "Confidence, Fear and a Propensity to Gamble: The Puzzle of War and Economics in an Age of Catastrophe 1914-45," Working Papers 201603, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    18. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
    19. Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Great Leveraging," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Viral V Acharya & Thorsten Beck & Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & Richard Portes (ed.), The Social Value of the Financial Sector Too Big to Fail or Just Too Big?, chapter 4, pages 33-65, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Jeremy C. Stein, 2021. "Can Policy Tame the Credit Cycle?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 5-22, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fallacy of composition; empathy; n-person prisoner’s dilemma games; n-person zero-sum games; symmetry; the golden rule.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D87 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Neuroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:trn:utwpas:1203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: assru.tm@gmail.com (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/detreit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.