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Structural Change and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations in China

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  • Wen Yao
  • Xiaodong Zhu

Abstract

In developed countries, aggregate employment is strongly pro-cyclical and almost as volatile as output. In China, the correlation of aggregate employment and output is close to zero, and the volatility of aggregate employment is very low. We argue that the key to understanding the aggregate employment fluctuations in China is the labour reallocation between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and that income effect plays an important role in determining the labour reallocation dynamics in both the long-run and short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Yao & Xiaodong Zhu, 2020. "Structural Change and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations in China," Working Papers tecipa-671, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-671
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kjetil Storesletten & Bo Zhao & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2019. "Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2191, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fang, Lei & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2021. "High-skilled services and development in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Tasso Adam & Loren Brandt & Chaoran Chen & Diego Restuccia & Xiaoyun Wei, 2024. "Land Security and Mobility Frictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1941-1987.
    4. Alessio Moro & Omar Rachedi, 2022. "The Changing Structure Of Government Consumption Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1323, August.
    5. Germaschewski, Yin & Horvath, Jaroslav & Rubini, Loris, 2021. "Property rights, expropriations, and business cycles in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Feng, Ying & Ren, Jie, 2023. "Skill bias, financial frictions, and selection into entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Change; Income Effect; Labour Reallocation; Employment Fluctuations; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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