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Benchmarked Empirical Bayes Methods in Multiplicative Area-level Models with Risk Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Malay Ghosh

    (Department of Statistics, University of Florida,)

  • Tatsuya Kubokawa

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

  • Yuki Kawakubo

    (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

   The paper develops empirical Bayes and benchmarked empirical Bayes estimators of positive small area means under multiplicative models. A simple example will be estimation of per capita income for small areas. It is now well-understood that small area estimation needs explicit, or at least implicit use of models. One potential difficulty with model-based estimators is that the overall estimator for a larger geographical area based on (weighted) sum of the model-based estimators is not necessarily identical to the corresponding direct estimator, such as the overall sample mean. One way to fix such a problem is the so-called benchmarking approach which modifies the model-based estimators to match the aggregate direct estimator. Benchmarked hierarchical and empirical Bayes estimators have proved to be particularly useful in this regard. However, while estimating positive small area parameters, the conventional squared error or weighted squared loss subject to the usual benchmark constraint does not necessarily produce positive estimators. Hence, it is necessary to seek other meaningful losses to alleviate this problem. In this paper, we consider the transformed Fay-Herriot model as a multiplicative model for estimating positive small area means, and suggest a weighted Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. We have found out that the resulting Bayes estimator is the posterior mean and that the corresponding benchmarked Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators retain the positivity constraint. The prediction errors of the suggested empirical Bayes estimators are investigated asymptotically, and their second-order unbiased estimators are provided. In addition, bootstrapped estimators of these prediction errors are also provided. The performance of the suggested procedures is investigated through simulation as well as with an empirical study.

Suggested Citation

  • Malay Ghosh & Tatsuya Kubokawa & Yuki Kawakubo, 2014. "Benchmarked Empirical Bayes Methods in Multiplicative Area-level Models with Risk Evaluation," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-918, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2014cf918
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gauri Sankar Datta & J. N. K. Rao & David Daniel Smith, 2005. "On measuring the variability of small area estimators under a basic area level model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(1), pages 183-196, March.
    2. G. Datta & M. Ghosh & R. Steorts & J. Maples, 2011. "Bayesian benchmarking with applications to small area estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 20(3), pages 574-588, November.
    3. W. R. Bell & G. S. Datta & M. Ghosh, 2013. "Benchmarking small area estimators," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 100(1), pages 189-202.
    4. Pfeffermann, Danny & Barnard, Charles H, 1991. "Some New Estimators for Small-Area Means with Application to the Assessment of Farmland Values," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 73-84, January.
    5. Eric V. Slud & Tapabrata Maiti, 2006. "Mean‐squared error estimation in transformed Fay–Herriot models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(2), pages 239-257, April.
    6. Malay Ghosh & Rebecca Steorts, 2013. "Two-stage benchmarking as applied to small area estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(4), pages 670-687, November.
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