IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/b60bc8c9-120b-4530-b69c-94b4e32cbb07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Vintage Effect in TPF-Growth : An Analysis of the Age Structure of Capital

Author

Listed:
  • Gittleman, M.
  • Ten Raa, T.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Wolff, E.N.

Abstract

The age structure of capital plays an important role in the measurement of productivity. It has been argued that the slowdown in the 1970's can be ascribed to the aging of the stock of capital. In this paper we incorporate the age structure in productivity measurement. A proposition proves that Nelson's (1964) formula is wrong. Our final proposition shows that inclusion of the vintage effect prompts an upward correction of measured productivity growth in times of an aging stock of capital. Here capital ages if the investment/capital ratio falls short of the inverse of the capital age, as a first proposition shows. The analysis rests on a rigorous accounting for vintages. We translate the Bureau of Economic Analysis' age of capital data into a measure of rates of obsolescence. Empirically, the correction of productivity growth for the vintage effect requires an estimate of the obsolescence and depreciation parameters on the basis of age data. The results indicate that the use of capital stock in efficiency units does cause some smoothing of Total Factor Productivity growth over time. In the 1950s, when investment accelerated, the vintage-adjusted capital growth rate well exceeded the BEA growth rate, and vintage-adjusted TFP growth is significantly lower than unadjusted TFP growth. The measured productivity slowdown of the 1970s is somewhat ameliorated.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Gittleman, M. & Ten Raa, T. & Wolff, E.N., 2003. "The Vintage Effect in TPF-Growth : An Analysis of the Age Structure of Capital," Other publications TiSEM b60bc8c9-120b-4530-b69c-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:b60bc8c9-120b-4530-b69c-94b4e32cbb07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/598913/109.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1984. "An Exploration into the Determinants of Research Intensity," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 209-232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1966. "The Embodiment Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 1-1.
    4. Wolff, Edward N, 1991. "Capital Formation and Productivity Convergence over the Long Term," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 565-579, June.
    5. Solow, Robert M, 1988. "Growth Theory and After," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 307-317, June.
    6. John A. Tatom, 1979. "The productivity problem," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 61(Sep), pages 3-16.
    7. Charles R. Hulten, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change is Embodied in Capital," NBER Working Papers 3971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Wolff, Edward N, 1996. "The Productivity Slowdown: The Culprit at Last? Follow-Up on Hulten and Wolff," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1239-1252, December.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1979. "The "End-of-Expansion" Phenomenon in Short-Run Productivity Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(2), pages 447-462.
    10. Peter K. Clark, 1979. "Issues in the Analysis of Capital Formation and Productivity Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(2), pages 423-446.
    11. Hulten, Charles R, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change Is Embodied in Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 964-980, September.
    12. Bosworth, D L, 1978. "The Rate of Obsolescence of Technical Knowledge-A Note," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 273-279, March.
    13. Baumol, William J. & Nelson, Richard R. & Wolff, Edward N. (ed.), 1994. "Convergence of Productivity: Cross-National Studies and Historical Evidence," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195083903.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Yajie & Liao, Wen-Chi, 2021. "Resource-Exhausted City Transition to continue industrial development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Taiji Hagiwara & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2014. "Capital Accumulation, Vintage and Productivity: The Japanese Experience," Discussion Papers 1418, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    3. Boulanger, Pierre & Philippidis, George, 2015. "The EU budget battle: Assessing the trade and welfare impacts of CAP budgetary reform," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 119-130.
    4. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.
    5. Raouf Boucekkine & Bruno de Oliveira Cruz, 2015. "Technological Progress and Investment: A Non-Technical Survey," AMSE Working Papers 1519, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Richard Harris & John Moffat, 2015. "Plant-level determinants of total factor productivity in Great Britain, 1997–2008," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Echevarría Olave, Cruz Ángel & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2005. "Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    8. Davide Piacentino, 2008. "Productivity, Infrastructures and Convergence: Panel Data Evidence on Italian Regions," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2008(2), pages 5-26.
    9. Joseph Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Davide Piacentino, 2009. "Total Factor Productivity Convergence among Italian Regions: Some Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 63-76.
    10. Boulanger, Pierre & Philippidis, George, 2014. "Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy. General equilibrium effects of the 2014-2020 budget agreement," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182789, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Lusungu, Luka & Chisasa, Joseph, 2023. "Nexus Between Investment and Agricultural Growth in The Democratic Republic of Congo: Cointegration, Short-Run Dynamics and Causality," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 68(2).
    12. Yasmina Rim Limam & Stephen M. Miller & Giampaolo Garzarelli, 2016. "Decomposition of Output Growth in the Presence of Input Quality: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," Working papers 2016-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    13. Giampaolo Garzarelli & Stephen M. Miller & Yasmina R. Limam, 2016. "Output Decomposition in the Presence of Input Quality Effects: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," Working Papers 72, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Richard Harris & John Moffat, 2011. "Plant-level Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Great Britain, 1997-2006," SERC Discussion Papers 0064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Houjian Li & Xiaolei Zhou & Mengqian Tang & Lili Guo, 2022. "Impact of Population Aging and Renewable Energy Consumption on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity in Rural China: Evidence from Panel VAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, May.
    16. Taiji Hagiwara & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2019. "Capital Accumulation, Vintage And Productivity: The Japanese Experience," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 747-771, June.
    17. TOKUI Joji & INUI Tomohiko & Young Gak KIM, 2008. "Embodied Technological Progress and the Productivity Slowdown in Japan," Discussion papers 08017, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2016. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth," Working papers 588, Banque de France.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hulten, Charles R., 2010. "Growth Accounting," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 987-1031, Elsevier.
    2. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.
    3. Taiji Hagiwara & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2019. "Capital Accumulation, Vintage And Productivity: The Japanese Experience," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 747-771, June.
    4. Georges Daw, 2022. "Determinants of Wealth Disparities in the EU: A Multi-scale Development Accounting Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 211-254, June.
    5. Diego Martínez, y José L. Torres & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José L. Torres, 2008. "Productivity growth and technological change in Europe and us," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2008/12, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    6. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Harabi, Najib, 1994. "Technischer Fortschritt in der Schweiz: Empirische Ergebnisse aus industrieökonomischer Sicht [Technischer Fortschritt in der Schweiz:Empirische Ergebnisse aus industrieökonomischer Sicht]," MPRA Paper 6725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hofman, André A., 2000. "The economic development of Latin America in the twentieth century," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1650 edited by Eclac, November.
    9. Molinari, Benedetto & Rodríguez, Jesús & Torres, José L., 2013. "Growth and technological progress in selected Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-71.
    10. Georges Daw, 2024. "Impact of technical change via intermediate consumption: exhaustive general equilibrium growth accounting and reassessment applied to USA 1954–1990," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(1), pages 55-87, January.
    11. TOKUI Joji & INUI Tomohiko & Young Gak KIM, 2008. "Embodied Technological Progress and the Productivity Slowdown in Japan," Discussion papers 08017, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Jorge Durán & Omar Licandro & Luis A. Puch, 2006. "Sobre la medición del crecimiento económico en presencia de progreso técnico incorporado," Working Papers 2006-24, FEDEA.
    13. Carlaw, Kenneth I. & Oxley, Les, 2008. "Resolving the productivity paradox," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 313-318.
    14. Meschi, Elena & Taymaz, Erol & Vivarelli, Marco, 2011. "Trade, technology and skills: Evidence from Turkish microdata," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(S1), pages 60-70.
    15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Krusell, Per, 2007. "Growth accounting with investment-specific technological progress: A discussion of two approaches," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1300-1310, May.
    16. Jason G. Cummins, 2000. "Taxation and the Sources of Growth: Estimates from U.S. Multinational Corporations," NBER Chapters, in: International Taxation and Multinational Activity, pages 231-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Giampaolo Garzarelli & Stephen M. Miller & Yasmina R. Limam, 2016. "Output Decomposition in the Presence of Input Quality Effects: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," Working Papers 613, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    18. Raquel Ortega‐Argilés & Mariacristina Piva & Marco Vivarelli, 2014. "The transatlantic productivity gap: Is R&D the main culprit?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 1342-1371, November.
    19. Gabriele Pellegrino & Mariacristina Piva & Marco Vivarelli, 2015. "How do new entrepreneurs innovate?," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 42(3), pages 323-341, September.
    20. Hwang, Won-Sik & Shin, Jungwoo, 2017. "ICT-specific technological change and economic growth in Korea," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 282-294.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:b60bc8c9-120b-4530-b69c-94b4e32cbb07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.