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Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach

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  • Lorenzo Pozzi

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the Journal of Macroeconomics (2010). Volume 32(1), 169-184. We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into an idiosyncratic part. Empirically, aggregate risk is modelled through a GARCH process on aggregate labour income shocks and individual risk is modelled as an unobserved component and obtained through Kalman filtering. Our results suggest that aggregate labour income risk explains a negligible fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption changes. A more important part of aggregate consumption changes is explained by the unobserved component. The interpretation of this component as reflecting idiosyncratic labour income risk is supported by the finding that it is negatively affected by received consumer transfers. Idiosyncratic labour income risk thus matters for the aggregate economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-069/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070069
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    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/07069.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour income uncertainty; consumption; precaution; state space models; GARCH errors; unobserved component; Bayesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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