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Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates

Author

Listed:
  • Konrad Banachewicz

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Aad van der Vaart

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • André Lucas

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

We extend the Hidden Markov Model for defaults of Crowder, Davis, and Giampieri (2005) to include covariates. The covariates enhance the prediction of transition probabilities from high to low default regimes. To estimate the model, we extend the EM estimating equations to account for the time varying nature of the conditional likelihoods due to sample attrition and extension. Using empirical U.S. default data, we find that GDP growth, the term structure of interest rates and stock market returns impact the state transition probabilities. The impact, however, is not uniform across industries. We only find a weak correspondence between industry credit cycle dynamics and general business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Konrad Banachewicz & Aad van der Vaart & André Lucas, 2006. "Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-094/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20060094
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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
    3. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    4. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
    5. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
    6. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2006. "Discrete versus continuous state switching models for portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 23-35, January.
    7. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Konrad Banachewicz & André Lucas, 2008. "Quantile forecasting for credit risk management using possibly misspecified hidden Markov models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 566-586.
    2. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
    3. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2011. "What Drives Aggregate Credit Risk?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 72-87.
    4. Spezia, L. & Cooksley, S.L. & Brewer, M.J. & Donnelly, D. & Tree, A., 2014. "Modelling species abundance in a river by Negative Binomial hidden Markov models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 599-614.
    5. Elliott, Robert J. & Chen, Zhiping & Duan, Qihong, 2009. "Insurance claims modulated by a hidden Brownian marked point process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 163-172, October.
    6. Anastasios Petropoulos & Vasilis Siakoulis & Dionysios Mylonas & Aristotelis Klamargias, 2018. "A combined statistical framework for forecasting default rates of Greek Financial Institutions' credit portfolios," Working Papers 243, Bank of Greece.
    7. Dimitris Gavalas & Theodore Syriopoulos, 2014. "Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Dimitris Gavalas & Theodore Syriopoulos, 2014. "Bank Credit Risk Management and Migration Analysis; Conditioning Transition Matrices on the Stage of the Business Cycle," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(2), pages 151-166, May.
    9. Sylvia Frühwirth‐Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2012. "Labor market entry and earnings dynamics: Bayesian inference using mixtures‐of‐experts Markov chain clustering," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1116-1137, November.
    10. Benjamin Neudorfer & Michael Sigmund & Alexander Trachta, 2011. "Detecting Financial Stability Vulnerabilities in Due Time: Can Simple Indicators Identify a Complex Issue?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 59-71.
    11. Yao-Zhi Xu & Jian-Lin Zhang & Ying Hua & Lin-Yue Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Credit Risk Evaluation Method for E-Commerce Sellers Based on a Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Geir D. Berentsen & Jan Bulla & Antonello Maruotti & Bård Støve, 2022. "Modelling clusters of corporate defaults: Regime‐switching models significantly reduce the contagion source," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(3), pages 698-722, June.
    13. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2011:i:22:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Shima Ghassempour & Federico Girosi & Anthony Maeder, 2014. "Clustering Multivariate Time Series Using Hidden Markov Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Ioannis D. Vrontos & John Galakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Spyridon D. Vrontos, 2024. "Forecasting GDP growth: The economic impact of COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1042-1086, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    defaults; Markov switching; default regimes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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