State Expansionary Austerity and Reverse Causality: A Critique of the Conventional Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3419588
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
- Breuer, Christian, 2013. "On the Identification and Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Changes in Fiscal Policy," MPRA Paper 52056, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Nov 2013.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990.
"Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F. Giavazzi & M. Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of two Small Euopean Countries," Working Papers 89, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2015.
"The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 19-42.
- Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2014. "The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidation Plans," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014, pages 19-42, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2014. "The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans," SAFE Working Paper Series 76, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Morris, Richard & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2007. "Structural balances and revenue windfalls: the role of asset prices revisited," Working Paper Series 737, European Central Bank.
- Holden, Steinar & Larsson Midthjell, Nina, 2013.
"Successful Fiscal Adjustments: Does choice of fiscal instrument matter?,"
Memorandum
23/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Steinar Holden & Nina Larsson Midthjell, 2013. "Successful Fiscal Adjustments - Does Choice of Fiscal Instrument Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4456, CESifo.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997.
"Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,"
IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
- Mr. Alberto Alesina & Mr. Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 1996/070, International Monetary Fund.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," NBER Working Papers 5730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2016.
"On the predictability of narrative fiscal adjustments,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 69-72.
- Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "On the predictability of narrative fiscal adjustments," Working Papers 1516, Banco de España.
- Jaime Guajardo & Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 949-968, August.
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani, 2014. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Theoretical Underpinnings and their Implications for the Eurozone," Contributions to Political Economy, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(1), pages 19-33.
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
- Alberto Alesina & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2018.
"What Do We Know about the Effects of Austerity?,"
AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 524-530, May.
- Alberto F. Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2018. "What do we know about the effects of Austerity?," NBER Working Papers 24246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto, 2018. "What do we know about the effects of austerity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12655, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Blyth, Mark, 2013. "Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199828302.
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial Markets’ Behavior Around Episodes of Large Changes in the Fiscal Stance," Scholarly Articles 2579824, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
- Yang, Weonho & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015.
"Macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment: A tale of two approaches,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 31-60.
- Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustment: A Tale of two Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 4401, CESifo.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Christian Breuer & Chang Woon Nam, 2020.
"Fiscal Consolidation and the Current Account: OECD Evidence,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
8071, CESifo.
- Christian Breuer & Chang Woon Nam, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Current Account: OECD Evidence," Chemnitz Economic Papers 035, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Jan 2020.
- Richard Kozul-Wright, 2020. "Recovering Better from COVID-19 Will Need a Rethink of Multilateralism," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 63(2), pages 157-161, December.
- Christian Breuer, 2021. "Structural Indicators and the Fiscal Uncertainty Principle," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(4), pages 182-183, July.
- Thibault Lemaire, 2020.
"Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean,"
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
20004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Papers halshs-03948669, HAL.
- Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02492309, HAL.
- Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working papers 764, Banque de France.
- Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Post-Print halshs-02492309, HAL.
- Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03948669, HAL.
- Eugene Msizi Buthelezi & Phocenah Nyatanga, 2023. "Time-Varying Elasticity of Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance and Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Domestic Government Debt in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, May.
- Amine Lahiani & Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Gabsi, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 710-747, December.
- Philipp Heimberger, 2024. "Fiscal consolidation and its growth effects in euro area countries: Past, present and future outlook," FMM Working Paper 109-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Jan Priewe, 2021. "Reforming the Fiscal Rulebook for the Euro Area – and the Challenge of Old and New Public Debt," IMK Studies 72-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Breuer, Christian, 2017. "Expansionary Austerity and Reverse Causality," MPRA Paper 77556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yang, Weonho & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015.
"Macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment: A tale of two approaches,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 31-60.
- Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustment: A Tale of two Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 4401, CESifo.
- Bardaka, Ioanna & Bournakis, Ioannis & Kaplanoglou, Georgia, 2021.
"Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: How harmful is austerity?,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 908-922.
- Ioanna Bardaka & Ioannis Bournakis & Georgia Kaplanoglou, 2018. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: how harmful is austerity?," Working Papers 255, Bank of Greece.
- Bardaka, Ioanna & Bournakis, Ioannis & Kaplanoglou, Georgia, 2020. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: How harmful is austerity?," MPRA Paper 98880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
- Woldu, Gabriel Temesgen & Szakálné Kanó, Izabella, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in SSA countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
- Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
- Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
- Kleis, Mischa & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2016. "The long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: Evidence from quantitative case studies," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2016.
- Geiger, Martin & Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2016.
"When do fiscal consolidations lead to consumption booms? Lessons from a laboratory experiment,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-20.
- Martin Geiger & Wolfgang Luhan & Johann Scharler, 2015. "When do Fiscal Consolidations Lead to Consumption Booms? Lessons from a Laboratory Experiment," Working Papers 2015-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
- Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2014.
"Fiscal adjustment and the costs of public debt service: evidence from OECD countries,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2593-2610, August.
- Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Fiscal Adjustment and the Costs of Public Debt Service: Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3297, CESifo.
- Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Fiscal Adjustment and the Costs of Public Debt Service: Evidence from OECD Countries," CREMA Working Paper Series 2010-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2020.
"The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(14), pages 1517-1532, March.
- Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending," Working Papers halshs-02043892, HAL.
- Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending," CERDI Working papers halshs-02043892, HAL.
- Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations on The Composition of Government Spending," Post-Print halshs-02315739, HAL.
- Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2020. "The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending," Post-Print hal-02887275, HAL.
- Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending," Post-Print hal-02314999, HAL.
- Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations on The Composition of Government Spending," Post-Print halshs-02316204, HAL.
- Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014.
"Assessing fiscal episodes,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
- António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/15, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2012. "Are Fiscal Adjustments Contractionary?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(4), pages 335-364, December.
- Afonso, António & Alves, José & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022.
"The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample,"
Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
- António Afonso & José Alves & João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "(Non-)Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Austerity: New Evidence from a Large Sample," EconPol Working Paper 55, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- António Afonso & José Alves & João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "(Non-) Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Austerity: New Evidence from a large sample," Working Papers REM 2021/0158, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018.
"Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
- Hommes, Cars H. & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2017. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 132, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
- Amine Lahiani & Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Gabsi, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 710-747, December.
- Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Are Fiscal Adjustments Bad for Investment?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2010-17, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Ağca, Şenay & Igan, Deniz, 2019. "Fiscal consolidations and the cost of credit," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 84-108.
- Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
- Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013.
"What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
- Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," NIPE Working Papers 17/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "What Determines the Duration of a Fiscal Consolidation Program?," GEMF Working Papers 2013-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
More about this item
Keywords
Austerity; Fiscal adjustment; Conventional approach; Blanchard method; Cyclical adjustment; Reverse causality;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-MAC-2019-12-02 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pia Malaney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inetnus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.