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The elusive consensus on climate change

Author

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  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
    Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
    Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
    Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam)

Abstract

Thirteen studies quantify the agreement that climate change is real and human-made. Consensus is at odds with the scientific method and irrelevant for policy. Respondents with little relevant expertise and papers on loosely related subjects dominate the studies. Data are analyzed with insufficient care, and samples arbitrarily restricted. Combining estimates from different studies, 89% agree that human activity significantly affected climate after 1750, and 80% that humans were the most important driver of climate change. 97% agree that human activity was the most important factor in climate change since 1950, but only 80% that anthropogenic greenhouse gases were.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S.J. Tol, 2019. "The elusive consensus on climate change," Working Paper Series 0319, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:0319
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    File URL: https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=wps-03-2019.pdf&site=24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisco Estrada & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2017. "A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 403-406, June.
    2. Anthony A. Leiserowitz, 2005. "American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1433-1442, December.
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    6. Hulme,Mike, 2009. "Why We Disagree about Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898690, September.
    7. Lawrence C. Hamilton, 2016. "Public Awareness of the Scientific Consensus on Climate," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(4), pages 21582440166, November.
    8. Hulme,Mike, 2009. "Why We Disagree about Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521727327, September.
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    12. Sander L van der Linden & Anthony A Leiserowitz & Geoffrey D Feinberg & Edward W Maibach, 2015. "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8, February.
    13. Ana-Maria Bliuc & Craig McGarty & Emma F. Thomas & Girish Lala & Mariette Berndsen & RoseAnne Misajon, 2015. "Public division about climate change rooted in conflicting socio-political identities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 226-229, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; consensus; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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