IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sus/susewp/0319.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The elusive consensus on climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
    Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
    Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
    Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam)

Abstract

Thirteen studies quantify the agreement that climate change is real and human-made. Consensus is at odds with the scientific method and irrelevant for policy. Respondents with little relevant expertise and papers on loosely related subjects dominate the studies. Data are analyzed with insufficient care, and samples arbitrarily restricted. Combining estimates from different studies, 89% agree that human activity significantly affected climate after 1750, and 80% that humans were the most important driver of climate change. 97% agree that human activity was the most important factor in climate change since 1950, but only 80% that anthropogenic greenhouse gases were.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S.J. Tol, 2019. "The elusive consensus on climate change," Working Paper Series 0319, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:0319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=wps-03-2019.pdf&site=24
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence C. Hamilton, 2016. "Public Awareness of the Scientific Consensus on Climate," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(4), pages 21582440166, November.
    2. Francisco Estrada & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2017. "A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 403-406, June.
    3. Anthony A. Leiserowitz, 2005. "American Risk Perceptions: Is Climate Change Dangerous?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1433-1442, December.
    4. Hulme,Mike, 2009. "Why We Disagree about Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521727327, September.
    5. Tol, Richard S.J., 2014. "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the literature: A re-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 701-705.
    6. Salil D. Benegal & Lyle A. Scruggs, 2018. "Correcting misinformation about climate change: the impact of partisanship in an experimental setting," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 61-80, May.
    7. Benny Peiser, 2005. "The Letter Science Magazine Rejected," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(3-4), pages 685-687, July.
    8. Sander Linden & Anthony Leiserowitz & Geoffrey Feinberg & Edward Maibach, 2014. "How to communicate the scientific consensus on climate change: plain facts, pie charts or metaphors?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 255-262, September.
    9. Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 424-432, January.
    10. Sander L van der Linden & Anthony A Leiserowitz & Geoffrey D Feinberg & Edward W Maibach, 2015. "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8, February.
    11. Ana-Maria Bliuc & Craig McGarty & Emma F. Thomas & Girish Lala & Mariette Berndsen & RoseAnne Misajon, 2015. "Public division about climate change rooted in conflicting socio-political identities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 226-229, March.
    12. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1950. "A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 328-328.
    13. Hulme,Mike, 2009. "Why We Disagree about Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898690, September.
    14. Benny Peiser, 2005. "The Letter Science Magazine Rejected," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(3), pages 685-687, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sara Arphorn & Aniruth Manothum & Kotchakorn Santiwung & Kanograt Pangunta & Kunio Hara & Tomohiro Ishimaru, 2021. "Working Conditions and Urinalysis Dipstick Testing among Female Rice Farmers: A Preliminary Cross-Sectional Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-10, August.
    2. Daniel P. Johnson, 2022. "Population-Based Disparities in U.S. Urban Heat Exposure from 2003 to 2018," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-20, September.
    3. I-Cheng Lu & Chen-Cheng Yang & Chi-Hsien Huang & Szu-Ying Chen & Chi-Wei Lin & Chia-Hsiang Lin & Hung-Yi Chuang, 2022. "The Risk Factors for Radiolucent Nephrolithiasis among Workers in High-Temperature Workplaces in the Steel Industry," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-9, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johnson Kakeu & Erik Paul Johnson, 2018. "Information Exchange and Transnational Environmental Problems," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 583-604, October.
    2. Sabine Roeser, 2012. "Risk Communication, Public Engagement, and Climate Change: A Role for Emotions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(6), pages 1033-1040, June.
    3. Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag & Philippe Burny & Ioan Banatean-Dunea & Dacinia Crina Petrescu, 2022. "How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People’s Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People’s Perceptions of Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Hall, C. Michael & Amelung, Bas & Cohen, Scott & Eijgelaar, Eke & Gössling, Stefan & Higham, James & Leemans, Rik & Peeters, Paul & Ram, Yael & Scott, Daniel & Aall, Carlo & Abegg, Bruno & Araña, Jorg, 2015. "Denying bogus skepticism in climate change and tourism research," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 352-356.
    5. Natalie Slawinski & Jonatan Pinkse & Timo Busch & Subhabrata Bobby Banerjeed, 2014. "The role of short-termism and uncertainty in organizational inaction on climate change: multilevel framework," Working Papers hal-00961226, HAL.
    6. Andreas Bjurström & Merritt Polk, 2011. "Climate change and interdisciplinarity: a co-citation analysis of IPCC Third Assessment Report," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 87(3), pages 525-550, June.
    7. Tammy Tabe, 2019. "Climate Change Migration and Displacement: Learning from Past Relocations in the Pacific," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-18, July.
    8. Felix J. Formanski & Marcel M. Pein & David D. Loschelder & John-Oliver Engler & Onno Husen & Johann M. Majer, 2022. "Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Kaitlin T Raimi & Paul C Stern & Alexander Maki, 2017. "The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Kate Elizabeth Gannon, Mike Hulme, 2017. "Geoengineering at the ‘edge of the world’: exploring perceptions of ocean fertilization through the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation," GRI Working Papers 280, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Janet Judy McIntyre‐Mills, 2013. "Anthropocentrism and Well‐being: A Way Out of the Lobster Pot?," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 136-155, March.
    12. Markus Dressel, 2022. "Models of science and society: transcending the antagonism," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Sanober Naheed & Salman Shooshtarian, 2021. "A Review of Cultural Background and Thermal Perceptions in Urban Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
    14. Shapiro, Matthew A., 2020. "Next-generation battery research and development: Non-politicized science at the Joint Center for Energy Storage Research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Friederike Hartz, 2024. "“We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication and enactment of climate science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-21, June.
    16. Hall, C. Michael & Amelung, Bas & Cohen, Scott & Eijgelaar, Eke & Gössling, Stefan & Higham, James & Leemans, Rik & Peeters, Paul & Ram, Yael & Scott, Daniel & Aall, Carlo & Abegg, Bruno & Araña, Jorg, 2015. "No time for smokescreen skepticism: A rejoinder to Shani and Arad," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 341-347.
    17. Nancy Menning, 2018. "Narrating climate change as a rite of passage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 343-353, March.
    18. Mercedes Bleda & Elisabeth Krull & Jonatan Pinkse & Eleni Christodoulou, 2023. "Organizational heuristics and firms' sensemaking for climate change adaptation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(8), pages 6124-6137, December.
    19. Richard Matthew, 2014. "Integrating climate change into peacebuilding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 83-93, March.
    20. Chhetri, Netra & Ghimire, Rajiv & Wagner, Melissa & Wang, Meng, 2020. "Global citizen deliberation: Case of world-wide views on climate and energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; consensus; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:0319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: University of Sussex Business School Communications Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecsusuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.