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Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Delays in Renegotiations and Risk Averse Creditors

Author

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  • Tamon Asonuma

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Hyungseok Joo

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

Foreign creditors' business cycles influence both the process and the outcome of sovereign debt restructurings. We compile two datasets on creditor committees and chairs and on creditor business and financial cycles at the restructurings, and find that when creditors experience high GDP growth, restructurings are delayed and settled with smaller haircuts. To rationalize these stylized facts, we develop a theoretical model of sovereign debt with multi-round renegotiations between a risk averse sovereign debtor and a risk averse creditor. The quantitative analysis of the model shows that high creditor income results in both longer delays in renegotiations and smaller haircuts. Our theoretical predictions are supported by data.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2019. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Delays in Renegotiations and Risk Averse Creditors," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1119, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1119
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2019/DP11-19.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings: Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint Tightness," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0323, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    3. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    5. Tamon Asonuma & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive Or Post-Default," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 175-214, February.
    6. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Mr. Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings," IMF Working Papers 2016/066, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Michinao Okachi, 2019. "Sovereign Default Triggered by Inability to Repay Debt," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Flavia Corneli, 2024. "Sovereign debt maturity structure and its costs," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 262-297, February.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    11. Joo, Hyungseok & Lee, Yoon-Jin & Yoon, Young-Ro, 2023. "Effects of information quality on signaling through sovereign debt issuance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 279-304.
    12. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Tomoyuki Nakajima & Shuhei Takahashi, 2023. "Debt Overhang and Lack of Lender's Commitment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2153-2185, December.
    13. Ibrahima Diarra & Michel Guillard & Hubert Kempf, 2022. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Sustainability: The Debt Recovery Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 9688, CESifo.
    14. Pina, Gonçalo, 2024. "State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 180-189.
    15. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    16. Tamon Asonuma & Michael G. Papaioannou & Takahiro Tsuda, 2021. "Banking Crisis, Sovereign Debt Restructurings, and Financial Stability Policies in Cyprus During 2012–13," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 25(3-4), pages 163-186, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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