IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sur/surrec/0606.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reaction Functions of Bank of England MPC Members: Insiders versus Outsiders

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Spencer

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

In 1997, the Bank of England was granted operational responsibility for setting interest rates to meet a Government inflation target of RPIX 2.5 percent. As part of the shift towards independence, operational decisions on monetary policy were delegated to a Monetary Policy Committee. Using voting data obtained from Minutes of Monetary Policy Committee Meetings, I show that as a group, internally appointed MPC members (insiders) on average prefer higher interest rates than external appointees (outsiders). Further, ordered logit analysis demonstrates that insiders and outsiders are motivated by different concerns when setting interest rates, with the interest rate setting behaviour of outsiders being less easy to predict than those of insiders.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Spencer, 2006. "Reaction Functions of Bank of England MPC Members: Insiders versus Outsiders," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0606, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0606
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2006/DP06-06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. A. E. Goodhart, 2001. "The Inflation Forecast," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 175(1), pages 59-66, January.
    2. Ellen E. Meade & Nathan Sheets, 2002. "Regional influences on U.S. monetary policy: some implications for Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 721, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Henry W. Chappell & Thomas M. Havrilesky & Rob Roy McGregor, 1993. "Partisan Monetary Policies: Presidential Influence Through the Power of Appointment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 185-218.
    4. Budd, Alan, 1998. "The Role and Operations of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1783-1794, November.
    5. Geraats, Petra M., 2000. "Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0hw7h7cp, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Geraats, Petra M., 2001. "Why adopt transparency? The publication of central bank forecasts," Working Paper Series 41, European Central Bank.
    7. John G. Cragg & Russell S. Uhler, 1970. "The Demand for Automobiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 386-406, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2008. "Delayed doves: MPC voting behaviour of externals," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19611, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Jakub Borowski & Adam Czerniak, 2012. "Determinanty polityki pieniężnej Ludowego Banku Chin," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 97-116.
    3. Mikael Apel & Carl Andreas Claussen & Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Petra Lennartsdotter & Øistein Røisland, 2013. "Monetary policy decisions – comparing theory and “inside” information from MPC members," Working Paper 2013/03, Norges Bank.
    4. Berk, Jan Marc & Bierut, Beata K., 2011. "Communication in a monetary policy committee," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 791-801.
    5. Alexander Jung & Gergely Kiss, 2012. "Voting by monetary policy committees: evidence from the CEE inflation-targeting countries," MNB Working Papers 2012/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    6. Mark Harris & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2011. "A decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 413-442, March.
    7. Jung, Alexander & Kiss, Gergely, 2012. "Preference heterogeneity in the CEE inflation-targeting countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 445-460.
    8. Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policymaking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 218-223, May.
    9. Jan Marc Berk & Beata Bierut & Ellen E. Meade, 2010. "The Dynamic Voting Patterns of the Bank of England's MPC," Working Papers 2010-17, American University, Department of Economics.
    10. Attila Csajbók, 2008. "The use of staff policy recommendations in central banks," MNB Working Papers 2008/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    11. Brooks, Robert & Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2007. "An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data," MPRA Paper 8509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jakub Borowski & Adam Czerniak & Krystian Jaworski, 2014. "The quest for determinants of Chinese exchange rate policy," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(5), pages 407�432-4.
    13. Mikael Apel & Carl Andreas Claussen & Petra Lennartsdotter & Øistein Røisland, 2015. "Monetary Policy Committees: Comparing Theory and "Inside" Information from MPC Members," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 47-89, December.
    14. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0306, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piotr Stanek, 2004. "How to assess proposals for enlargement reform of the European Central Bank," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 209-239.
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ana Lasaosa, 2007. "Learning the Rules of the New Game? Comparing the Reactions in Financial Markets to Announcements before and after the Bank of England's Operational Independence," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 10(1), pages 18-41, Summer.
    4. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque centrale et l'Union monétaire européennes : les tribulations de la crédibilité," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 211-244.
    5. Marco Hoeberichts, 2002. "The Credibility of Central Bank Announcements," Working Papers 0221, Banco de España.
    6. Andrew Hallett & Jan Libich, 2012. "Explicit inflation targets and central bank independence: friends or foes?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 271-297, November.
    7. Malcolm Edey & Andrew Stone, 2004. "A Perspective on Monetary Policy Transparency and Communication," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 99-118.
    9. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009. "Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
    10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2007. "Central Bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimistic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-50, March.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kateøina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíø, 2007. "Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 540-557, December.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Switzerland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2001/075, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Harmanta & M. Barik Bathaluddin & Jati Waluyo, 2011. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Credibility Based On Arimbi (Aggregate Rational Inflation ? Targeting Model for Bank Indonesia); Lessons From Indonesian Experience," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 13(3), pages 271-306, January.
    17. Tomasz Łyziak, 2013. "A note on central bank transparency and credibility in Poland," NBP Working Papers 162, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    18. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Methods Available to Monetary Policy Makers to Deal with Uncertainty," Macroeconomics 0310002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Seth B. Carpenter, 2004. "Transparency and monetary policy: what does the academic literature tell policymakers?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. James Yetman, 2001. "Gaining Credibility for Inflation Targets," Staff Working Papers 01-11, Bank of Canada.
    21. Manfred J. M. Neumann & Jurgen Von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 127-148.
    22. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0281, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    23. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mr. Cem Karacadag & Roberto Guimarães-Filho, 2003. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Elements of Best Practice," IMF Working Papers 2003/152, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Lavan Mahadeva & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "The role of short-run inflation targets and forecasts in disinflation," Bank of England working papers 167, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Committee; insiders; outsiders; voting;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ioannis Lazopoulos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desuruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.