IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/str/wpaper/0801.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Migrants Save Greece From Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Using G-AMOS

Author

Listed:
  • Nikos Pappas

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

The population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age population changes are introduced to the G-AMOS modelling framework calibrated for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikos Pappas, 2008. "Can Migrants Save Greece From Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach Using G-AMOS," Working Papers 0801, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:0801
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/2008/media_138493_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
    2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colin Jennings & Hein Roelfsema, 2008. "Civil Conflict, Federalism and Strategic Delegation of Leadership," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(4), pages 557-573, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lecca, Patrizio & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2011. "An investigation of issues relating to where energy should enter the production function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2832-2841.
    2. James A. Giesecke & John R. Madden, 2013. "Evidence-based regional economic policy analysis: the role of CGE modelling," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 6(2), pages 285-301.
    3. Lisenkova, Katya & McGregor, Peter & Pappas, Nikos & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen & Wright, Robert E., 2007. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2623, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Gilmartin, Michelle & Swales, Kim J. & Turner, Karen, 2008. "A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-24, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Cui, Cathy Xin & Ha, Soo Jung & Hanley, Nicholas & McGregor, Peter G & Turner, Karen & Yin, Ya Ping, 2011. "Productivity Growth, Decoupling and Pollution Leakage," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2011-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    6. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2013. "Forward-looking and myopic regional Computable General Equilibrium models: How significant is the distinction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 160-176.
    7. Turner, Karen & Munday, Max & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim, 2012. "How responsible is a region for its carbon emissions? An empirical general equilibrium analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 70-78.
    8. Soo Ha & J. Swales, 2012. "The export-base model with a supply-side stimulus to the export sector," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 323-353, October.
    9. Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales, 2010. "Balanced Budget Government Spending in a Small Open Regional Economy," Working Papers 1020, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    10. Turner, Karen & Hanley, Nick, 2009. "How do improvements in labour productivity in the Scottish economy affect the UK position on the Environmental Kuznets Curve?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-34, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    11. Michelle Gilmartin & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales & Karen Turner, 2009. "The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances," Working Papers 0903, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    12. Linda Ferguson & Peter Mcgregor & J. Kim Swales & Karen Turner & Ya Ping Yin, 2005. "Incorporating sustainability indicators into a computable general equilibrium model of the scottish economy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 103-140.
    13. Karen Turner & Michelle Gilmartin & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales, 2012. "An integrated IO and CGE approach to analysing changes in environmental trade balances," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(1), pages 161-180, March.
    14. Gillespie, Gary & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Yin, Yan Ping, 1999. "A Computable General Equilibrium Approach to the Ex Post Evaluation of Regional Development Agency Policies," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa260, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Katerina Lisenkova & Peter Mcgregor & Nikos Pappas & Kim Swales & Karen Turner & Robert Wright, 2006. "Macroeconomic Impact of Ageing Population in Scotland. A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa06p432, European Regional Science Association.
    16. K. Lisenkova & P. G. McGregor & N. Pappas & J. K. Swales & K. Turner & R. E. Wright, 2010. "Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1351-1368.
    17. James Giesecke & John Madden, 2010. "Uncovering the Factors behind Comparative Regional Economic Performance: A Multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1329-1349.
    18. Learmonth, D. & McGregor, P.G. & Swales, J.K. & Turner, K.R. & Yin, Y.P., 2007. "The importance of the regional/local dimension of sustainable development: An illustrative Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the Jersey economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 15-41, January.
    19. Yizhou Zhang & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2019. "Fiscal Decentralization – A Cautious Tale," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 173-187, March.
    20. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 379-475, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE modelling; ageing population; migration; demography; Greece;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:0801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirsty Hall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edstruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.